Round 1 Mock Draft Update: 15 April 2012

As before, these are the picks that I feel represent the best of both worlds regarding "need" versus "best player available". Most NFL teams put together their big boards based on this philosophy to ensure that they get the guys that they want and they're getting good value as well. 

1.     Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (6’4” 235lbs). Luck’s display of athleticism only solidified his position as the top overall pick. Indy moved on from Peyton Manning and was able to re-sign Reggie Wayne, so Andrew Luck won’t be throwing at imaginary receivers. Barring some major MAJOR change, Andrew Luck still remains to be the top pick in the draft.  Previous Pick: No Change.

2.     Washington Redskins [from St. Louis] - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (6’2” 220lbs). I knew the Skins would do whatever it took to land RGIII and I was right. They gave up more than what Cleveland was willing to give up. Griffin is super athletic and draws a lot of comparisons to guys like Michael Vick when it comes to his ability to scramble, but I think he compares more to Aaron Rodgers. RGIII is an incredible athlete, but he’s also an outstanding passer with great accuracy. He’d be a great fit in Mike Shanahan’s offense. Previous Pick: No Change.

3.     Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC (6’6” 306lbs). Kalil demonstrated the strength and athleticism that makes a premier left tackle in the NFL.  I think the Vikings would like to be the team that field offers to trade out of their pick so someone can take Robert Griffin here, but if they stand pat I think they’ll take the best player available and that without a doubt is Matt Kalil. The Vikings have invested in Christian Ponder and it is always a good idea to give young QB’s as much protection as possible otherwise they end up like David Carr. Kalil is also a fantastic run blocker, so Adrian Peterson should be happy about this selection as well. Previous Pick: No Change.

4.     Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama (5’9” 224lbs). Even only a few months removed from his knee scope Richardson posted a respectable 40-yard dash running in the area of high 4.4’s to low 4.5’s. With a back as powerful and explosive as he is, 40 times aren’t the be-all/end-all for his ability, value, and upside. Cleveland missed out on trading up for RGIII, so I think they will go for the next best offensive player and that’s easily Trent Richardson. The Browns are going to have to take as much pressure off of Colt McCoy as possible and one of the easiest ways to do that is to improve the running game. They were willing to let Peyton Hillis leave via free agency, so I have to think a large part of that is because they are targeting Trent Richardson.   Previous Pick: Justin Blackmon.

5.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU (5’11” 188lbs). The Bucs significantly overpaid for corner Eric Wright, but they still are likely going to need another corner considering Rhonde Barber is 36 years old and Aqib Talib may face serious jail time. Greg Schiano is a no nonsense kind of coach and he may not be interested in Talib’s services anyway. Claiborne is one of the top rated defensive players in this draft and has all of the skills and qualities you look for in a cover corner. Previous Pick: Justin Blackmon.

6.     St. Louis Rams [from Washington] – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (6’1” 215lbs). Jeff Fisher stated that they want to get better weapons for Sam Bradford and I can completely understand that. They’ve got some talent with Danny Amendola, but Danario Alexander and Brandon Gibson are mediocre at best. Blackmon runs great routes, he sinks his hips and explodes out of breaks, he’s got solid speed, he separates well, and he hardly ever lets a pass get into his body. If he were 2 inches taller he’d probably be in consideration for a top 3 pick.    Previous Pick: Devon Still.

7.     Jacksonville Jaguars – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina (6’2” 265lbs). I see the Jags really looking for explosive players in this draft. I think they’re going to try and get a ton of athletic guys with a ton of upside early on in this draft and let them be baptized by fire. Ingram is a great example of a work-horse type of defensive player. He’s absolutely relentless and posted one of the best 10-yard splits out of any of the DE/OLB’s in this past combine. He doesn’t have that long torso and arms that you predominately look for in defensive ends, but his quickness and burst is elite and that clearly makes up for his lack of “length”. Previous Pick: Quinton Coples.

8.     Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M (6’4” 221lbs). This is far too high for Tannehill to go and in almost any other draft he’d likely go a lot lower, but this draft only really has about 10-15 guys worthy of a 1^st round selection and a lot of borderline guys. The Dolphins tried to get Alex Smith, but ended up signing David Garrard, which will provide them a nice cushion to ease Tannehill into the NFL. Tannehill would also have the luxury of re-uniting with former college coach, Mike Sherman, so grasping the playbook won’t be as difficult. That said, Tannehill does have a lot of upside and has all the tools you look for in a franchise QB.  Previous Pick: Michael Floyd.

9.     Carolina Panthers – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina (6’1” 190lbs). Gilmore has been an impressive cornerback for a few seasons now in the SEC. He’s got great size at 6’1” and his ball skills are better than his SEC colleague, Dre Kirkpatrick, which is ultimately why I think Gilmore will go ahead of him. Carolina could go for a DT, but they drafted 2 DT’s last year and I think getting Jon Beason back at 100% will really benefit their front 7 a lot more than folks give them credit for. The Panthers have needed another corner opposite of Chris Gamble for a few years now and this is a good opportunity to get a very underrated player who can be a franchise corner for several years and match up against any NFC South receiver. Previous Pick: Dontari Poe.

10.   Buffalo Bills – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa (6’6” 305lbs). Buffalo has needed a left tackle for far too long and with Demetrius Bell an Eagle there is a wide open need. Luckily for the Bills, the Iowa prospect drops to them here. Reiff doesn’t have the long arms that you look for in a prototypical left tackle, but he more than makes up for it with agility and footwork. He’s a fantastic downhill run blocker and clears defensive linemen out of the way well. He’s a high motor guy and is very coacbable, so getting him to where he needs to be regarding his pass protection shouldn’t be too difficult for Chan Gailey. Previous Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick.

11.   Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College (6’3” 247lbs). The Chiefs are potentially one of the teams that could trade up for Ryan Tannehill, but if they don’t I think they’ll be looking to go defense with their first pick. Derrick Johnson enjoyed somewhat of a break out year and Romeo Crennell is a defensive minded coach and is going to want to make sure that the Chiefs get tougher and better against the run up front. Kuechly is a highly intelligent defensive player who tackles well and can drop into coverage, which makes him an ideal 3-down linebacker. There are some questions as to whether or not he can function in a 3-4, but I think his natural ability will allow him to overcome any schematic changes. Previous Pick: Trent Richardson.

12.   Seattle Seahawks – Quinton Coples, DE, UNC (6’6” 285lbs). Arguably the best defensive lineman prospect in this draft, Coples has a really nice blend of strength and quickness. For a guy his size he explodes off the line and gets around blockers quickly. It’s hard for offensive linemen to get their hands on him because of his long arms and his ability to get off the line as quickly as he can. He’s an outstanding run blocker and he rarely loses battles in pass protection. I think Coples slides a little due to some character and work ethic questions coming out of college. He’s very talented, but he has been known to not give 100% out on the field and during practice and that is something that a lot of coaches don’t want to deal with. However, Pete Carroll is not one of those coaches. He’s always been the kind of guy who isn’t afraid of character concerns and he’s also been a coach who has gotten the most out of players where others could not. Previous Pick: David DeCastro.

13.   Arizona Cardinals – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (6’3” 220lbs). The Cardinals are looking at an off-season where they lost out on Peyton Manning and the 49er’s added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. The Cardinals need play makers and they really need to get someone opposite of Larry Fitzgerald who can take some of the heat off the guy. The Cards re-signed Early Doucet, who is more of a slot receiver, but they still really lack that #2 guy. Floyd gives the Cardinals another big bodied WR with the wheels to get deep and elite leaping ability. A lot of people compare Floyd’s play to Larry Fitzgerald’s style, so why not pair the two up and watch the aerial attack? Previous Pick: Luke Kuechly.

14.   Dallas Cowboys – David DeCastro (6’4” 315lbs). I think Dallas would prefer to go a couple of different ways here, but if DeCastro falls they really have to take him. Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland were injured a lot last season and the Cowboy’s interior offensive line really was inconsistent and led to Tony Romo getting forced into some bad plays. The Cowboys seem to have found a feature back in DeMarco Murray and getting someone like DeCastro will ensure a stout running game for Dallas over the next couple of years. He’s a day-1 starter and for a guy who is 6’4” and change he sinks his hips very well and moves with precision and purpose. There aren’t too many guys I’d consider “elite” players in this draft, but DeCastro is definitely one of them. Previous Pick: Courtney Upshaw.

15.   Philadelphia Eagles – Mark Barron, SS, Alabama (6’1” 213lbs). Even though Barron wasn’t 100% at Alabama’s recent Pro-Day he still ran extremely well and displayed all of the attributes that made him a top prospect. He’s a big hitter and can come up and play strong in the box around the line of scrimmage, but he’s still quick enough to play deep and cover receivers and tight ends. The Eagles have been looking for a physical presence at safety since Brian Dawkins and the past few years their back end has really been inconsistent. Barron gives them flexibility with Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen and he also gives their front 7 a lot of support as a run defender. Previous Pick: Michael Floyd.

16.   New York Jets – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama (6’2” 270lbs). The Jets could go a lot of different ways, but being that their run defense stunk last year, Calvin Pace hasn’t lived up to that contract they gave him, Aaron Maybin is a situational pass rusher, and Bryan Thomas is coming off a season ending injury, I think there is a legit reason for the Jets to take Upshaw at pick 16. He’s absolutely worth it and can play in multiple fronts. He’s not a quick twitch athlete, but he does have some good pass rushing skills and he’s excellent against the run. Rex Ryan is someone who prides himself in tough defense and Upshaw is someone who’d work extremely well in Rex’s hybrid 3-4 scheme. Previous Pick: Jonathan Martin.

17.   Cincinnati Bengals [from Oakland] – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State (6’4” 298lbs). Surprisingly enough, the Bengals have some depth issues on their defensive line. They lost Fanene to the Patriots in free agency, Carlos Dunlap has been a pretty big disappointment and Michael Johnson is really only a situational pass rusher. Domata Peko and Geno Atkins are still very good defensive tackles, but you need a good rotation and Fletcher Cox has taken the draft boards by storm. His ability to  “get skinny” along the line of scrimmage is outstanding and he is extremely disruptive in the backfield. He’s a high motor guy who has a penchant for blowing up plays quickly and chasing QB’s out of the pocket. This is a great pick value wise for the Bengals and gives Mike Zimmer a ton of options for defensive fronts.  Previous Pick: Stephon Gilmore.

18.   San Diego Chargers – Cordy Glenn, OT/G, Georgia (6’5” 346lbs). Glenn is a massive guy who moves extremely well for his size. He played a lot of LT at Georgia, so the experience is there, but I don’t see him as a LT in the NFL unless it’s due to injury. He’s still a fairly raw pass protector and his best attributes are raw strength, long arms, and run blocking ability. The Chargers have a hole at LG with Kris Dielman retiring and Cordy Glenn could also be a candidate to start at RT as Jeromy Clary has been below average for quite some time. Previous Pick: Jerrel Worthy.

19.   Chicago Bears – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU (6’6” 322lbs). Brockers is only 21 years old and has such a tremendous upside to him that he’s definitely going to be a 1^st round pick. He didn’t move as well as he would have liked at the combine, but his size and quickness alone are going to get a lot of defensive coordinators’ saliva glands going because on tape this guy just absolutely dominates offensive linemen. He uses leverage extremely well and commands double teams. He needs some coaching on pass rushing skills, but lined up beside Julius Peppers would give offensive linemen fits and he’d also help keep Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs clean.  Previous Pick: Whitney Mercilus.

20.   Tennessee Titans – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama (6’2” 190lbs). The Titans lost Cortland Finnegan and they really need to consider re-vamping their secondary. Jason McCourty is a decent starting corner and Alteraun Verner is good in the slot, but when you’re in the same division with Andre Johnson you want a corner who is physical enough and big enough to stay with him and beat him up a little bit on patterns. Kirkpatrick doesn’t have the elite ball skills, but he’s a good tackler, closes quickly, and has a rare combination of size and speed that you don’t often get an opportunity to draft.  Previous Pick: Janoris Jenkins.

21.   Cincinnati Bengals – Kendall Wright Jr, WR, Baylor (5’11” 195lbs). Jordan Shipley is coming off an ACL tear and the Bengals have no interest in trying to retain Jerome Simpson. It’s obvious that Andy Dalton has what it takes to be a winner in the Queen City, but they really need to continue to give the kid weapons and keep that passing attack as potent as possible. Wright’s stock is going to drop a little because of a poor 40-yard dash time, size, and coming out of a weak defensive conference. There is no doubt that the guy is a special player when he has the ball in his hands, but he’s going to have a bit of a learning curve when it comes to going against NFL caliber defenses. Still, he’s one of the top players in this draft and he can split out wide and play in the slot. Previous Pick: Cordy Glenn.

22.   Cleveland Browns [from Atlanta] – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford (6’6” 310lbs).  The Browns recently cut Tony Pashos and there is NO possible way that they are good with Oneil Cousins starting at RT. Colt McCoy actually looked like a decent QB who could win some games when they leaned heavily on Peyton Hillis and the running game. I think that’s something that Pat Shurmur really needs to get back to and by getting Trent Richardson earlier in the draft and getting on of the best run blocking offensive tackles at 22 is an excellent start to getting back on track offensively. Martin has the size to play on the left side, but I think having book ends of Joe Thomas and Jon Martin would prove to be one of the better young offensive lines in the NFL when you look at how well Jason Pinkston played last year and Alex Mack is one of the best young centers in the NFL. Previous Pick: Whitney Mercilus.

23.   Detroit Lions – Peter Konz, OC, Wisconsin (6’5” 315lbs). The Lions’ brass has to realize that their success hinges on keeping Matt Stafford healthy and protected. Dom Raiola was a decent center, but his skills have declined and getting the best center in this draft could be of some value to the Lions in the bottom of the 1^st round. The Lions definitely want to run the ball more than they have, so hopefully getting a mauler like Konz will allow them to take pressure off of Matt Stafford and utilize the ground game a lot more than what they have done as a result of injuries and inconsistency along the OL. Konz could start out at guard for the Lions and eventually move over to center.  Previous Pick: Mark Barron.

24.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Janoris Jenkins, CB, N. Alabama (5’11” 193lbs). The Steelers have some serious issues on the defensive side of the ball, but their secondary hasn’t been very good for a few years now and they’ve really been getting by with a strong pass rush. Now that teams are keying on their pass rushers better and they don’t have guys like Aaron Smith, their secondary has taken a big hit. Against Denver in the playoffs Ike Taylor couldn’t hang with Demaryius Thomas at all and during the regular season Ike had issues drawing PI’s. They let William Gay hit free agency and their young guys are promising, but still very untested. Jenkins seems to have gotten over his ego a bit from being dismissed by Florida’s program and by all accounts was impressive during combine interviews, but still has some question marks about his maturity. He’s arguably the 2nd best cover corner and provides ST’s depth as well. While some coaches may shy away, I think Mike Tomlin would be able to get through to this kid. Previous Pick: Mike Adams.

25.   Denver Broncos – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis (6’4” 346lbs). I think John Fox and John Elway will be interested in the athletic DT here at pick 25. He could go a lot higher than this, but as guys like Mayock have pointed out, the tape just isn’t there. He was incredibly impressive at the combine and displayed athleticism that just seems unimaginable in a guy his size, but if he was that athletic then why didn’t he dominate the competition at Memphis? I think he’s better suited as a 1-gap DT in a 4-3 defense, which would allow his quickness and burst to be used a lot more effectively than if he were to go to a 3-4 scheme. Broderick Bunkley signed with the Saints and Marcus Thomas doesn’t look likely to come back. Previous Pick: Kendall Wright Jr.

26.   Houston Texans – Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford (6’6” 247lbs). This is a copycat league and the Patriots displayed what you can do with multiple TE sets when you have two TE’s who can move all over the field and are dangerous receiving threats. Fleener isn’t as physical as Gronkowski up in New England, but he’s faster and more of a fluid receiver. Owen Daniels is still a good player, but he’s not a great run blocker and he’s got some durability concerns. The Texans really need to start thinking about pulling attention away from Andre Johnson because Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones aren’t cutting it. Fleener gives Gary Kubiak a ton of options for formations, routes, and game planning and being that Fleener is also a good blocker he’ll help take away from any major loss on the right side from Eric Winston being cut. Previous Pick: Kelechi Osemele.

27.   New England Patriots [from New Orleans] – Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois (6’4” 265lbs). Belichik seems committed to running both the 4-3 and 3-4 defensive fronts so I think there is going to be a heavy push for guys who can fill both roles. Mercilus has been compared by many as this year’s version of Jason Pierre-Paul and there is definitely reason to believe that. He’s a quick twitch athlete with an outstanding burst off the line of scrimmage and he can cut better than almost any other defensive end in this draft class, which allows him to get upfield and take direct angles to the QB. While he was only a DE in college he participated in every LB drill at the combine and at his Pro-Day, which shows a lot of character and willingness to get better and prove that he can function well in space as well as a pass rusher. Previous Pick: Michael Brockers.

28.   Green Bay Packers – Shea McClellin, DE, Boise State (6’3” 260lbs). The biggest problem Green Bay had last year down the stretch was not being able to generate a consistent pass rush, which left their secondary extremely vulnerable. Clay Matthews can still be a double-digit sack guy, but he really needs other guys in the front 7 to take the attention off of him and last year they just didn’t have that. The Packers are absolutely enamored with McClellin and during the Senior Bowl and combine he displayed the ability to transition from a pass rushing defensive end to a stand up OLB in a 3-4. There are some scouts who also think that he could eventually play ILB in a 3-4 as well, which only adds to his value, upside, and versatility. Previous Pick: Fletcher Cox.

29.   Baltimore Ravens – Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin (6’4” 315lbs). I think the Ravens shock a lot of folks and go with Kevin Zeitler here. He’s someone that could easily be a day-1 starter. He’s one of the best run blocking offensive linemen (not just guards) in this entire draft and the ground game is something the Ravens desperately need to get better at. He’s a borderline 1^st/2^nd round guy, so I could see Baltimore trading down here and hoping Zeitler falls to them in the top of the 2^nd round, but I think they’d still draft the guy at 29 and go from there. He’s going to need a little coaching on pass protection, but he’s got the tenacity, strength, and athleticism to develop into a very good interior offensive lineman in the NFL. Finally, he’s displayed willingness to transition to center as well by showing the ability to snap the ball and maintain good blocking presence down at the Senior Bowl. Previous Pick: Alshon Jeffery.

 

30.   San Francisco 49er’s – Jerrell Worthy, DT, Michigan State (6’3” 305lbs). Worthy has been somewhat of a sleeper name with ties to the 1^st round. Some like him as high as a top 15 pick and going before guys like Still, Cox, and Poe. I’m not sure about going that high, but he’s probably one of the better 5-technique guys in this draft. He had a down year and brought his work ethic into question, but the guy is incredibly talented and may end up becoming one of the best defensive linemen in this draft in a few years. He brought his stock up significantly by displaying the burst and athleticism at the combine that many wondered if he really had. He’s got a lot of upside and the Niners could definitely use some depth and a youth movement on the DL. Previous Pick: Stephen Hill.

31.   New England Patriots – Nick Perry, DE, USC (6’3” 270lbs). Perry was absolutely stellar at the combine. He ran drills for linebacker, he ran drills for defensive ends, his 10-yard split was incredible for a guy weighing around 275lbs and he looked like he was taking the entire process very seriously by showing up at a muscular and defined 270lbs. Keeping with the defensive theme, the Patriots are going to be continuously scouring the draft for guys who can get their defense back to where it needs to be and a lot of it starts up front. They lost Mark Anderson and Andre Carter is a free agent, so getting a pair of explosive pass rushers who can line up with his hand in the dirt and stand up is a must for New England. Previous Pick: Harrison Smith.

32.   New York Giants – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (5’11” 212lbs). I don’t know why more folks don’t have Miller listed as the #2 back behind Trent Richardson. He’s a solid 210-215lbs, he’s agile, he’s explosive, he’s got great hands, and he’s got track star speed. He needs some coaching on pass blocking and he needs to learn patience when running between the tackles because too often I see the kid looking to bounce it outside if there are no immediate lanes between the tackles. The biggest reason I have Miller rated so highly is because he’s only 20 years old and the shelf life of a running back in the NFL is minimal and historically speaking it’s likely that Miller’s best years will come between the age of 23 and 27 years old and by that time (like Clinton Portis) he’ll have been in the league for 7 seasons and will have taken a pounding. Previous Pick: Coby Fleener.

What is Ray Rice Worth?

     If you were to take a poll of NFL fans regarding who the "best" running back in the league was most would probably say Adrian Peterson without batting an eye. However, in the last two seasons both Arian Foster and Ray Rice have rushed for more yards, caught more passes, played in more games, and have more total yards from scrimmage than Peterson and that really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone given the sudden drop off that most running backs face heading into their late 20's. Adrian Peterson is still a work horse of a back, but he's missed 5 games in the last two seasons and for a 220lb running back you have to wonder how his body is going to respond at the "ripe" age of 27 (in running back years, 27-28 years old is where you can historically start to see a decline in a lot of running backs). These reasons are why most educated fans would tell you that Arian Foster and Ray Rice are the two top running backs in the league right now with Matt Forte right behind them.

     The problem that the Baltimore Ravens currently find themselves in is determining what exactly Ray Rice is worth. The Minnesota Vikings signed Adrian Peterson to a 7 year, $100 million contract last September that would pay him roughly $36 million in guaranteed money. So, did the Vikings really set the bar for what top backs are to be paid? Or did they pull a Dan Snyder and sign a star player to a ridiculous contract that far exceeds the total worth of the player and the position? A contract like that can truly jeopardize future salary cap requirements and the Vikings may have to face a harsh truth that he's not worth that kind of contract and no running back really is because most backs rarely maintain a high level of production into their 30's. It just rarely happens. Ray Rice fits into this dilemma because his agent has stated that Rice wants a contract similar to what Peterson got and knowing what we know about the shelf life of a running back there is just no way that the Ravens can fully justify paying a running back an average of nearly $14 million per season when they're trying to field an entire team and have big contracts looming on the horizon for Joe Flacco and Lardarius Webb.

     Enter Arian Foster...

     Foster has been one of the most consistent and dynamic backs over the course of the last two seasons and has combined for over 4,000 yards from scrimmage, over 700 touches [rushes & receptions], and 30 total touchdowns amassing 180 points [ 210 if you include extra points]. His production over the last two season is a major reason for the recent success of the Houston Texans and it was clear that Foster, now 25 years old, was a significant part of the Texans' offense and their projected success. Even when their starting quarterback, Matt Schaub, went down in week 10 and they had to rely on a rookie QB, TJ Yates, they were still able to maintain success due to Foster and the ground game. Even in the playoffs against Baltimore's stout defense, Foster still rattled off 132 yards on the ground and brought the Texans within a lone TD of tying the game up. Both Foster and Ray Rice were free agents heading into this off-season and both were waiting with anticipation to see what the other would do. The reason why Arian Foster's contract is so important is because his contract (not Adrian Peterson's) would set the legitimate bar for what top rated running backs entering their prime should be getting. During the first week in March Foster signed a 5 year contract totalling $43.5 million with $20.75 million in guaranteed money; a far cry from Peterson's $100 million over 7 years.

   Most Ravens' fans will claim that Rice is the better and more complete back and they'd certainly have an argument in that stance. As a Ravens fan I know that I would have a difficult time picking between the two in a backyard football game because both bring a tremendous amount of talent to the team, both are team-first guys, and both have multiple years of consistent production. The only nod I would really give to Rice over Foster is durability and conversely the only nod I would give to Foster over Rice is Foster has that extra gear in open space that Rice doesn't have.

Just comparing the numbers over the last two seasons [2010 & 2011]:

Baltimore's offensive production - 2,054 plays| 10,585 total yards| 735 total points.  
Rice's total offensive contribution (32 regular season games) - 737 total contributing plays [rushes + receptions]| 3,842 total yards| 147 total points [21 total TD's].
Value to offense - 35.8% of total plays| 36.3% of total yards| 20% of total offensive points.

Houston's offensive production - 2,075 plays| 12,140 total yards| 771 total points.
Foster's total offensive contribution (26 regular season games) - 724 total contributing plays [rushes + receptions]| 4,061 total yards| 180 total points [30 total TD's].
Value to offense - 34.89% of total plays| 33.5% of total yards| 23.4% of total offensive points.

   If we were to break it down even further we would see that Rice accounted for 19% of the receiving yards, 63% of the rushes, 67% of the rushing yards, 65% of the rushing TD's, and 9% of the passing TD's. Essentially, Ray Rice is 1/3 of the entire offensive production over the past two seasons. When we look at Foster we find that he accounted for 63% of the rushes, 16% of the passing yards, 63% of the rushing yards, 68% of the rushing TD's, and 9% of the passing TD's. While Rice has the edge on the ratio of rushing yardage and receiving yards, Foster has more points scored, more rushing yards, and more total yards from scrimmage in 6 less games than Rice. It's fair to say that if Foster had played or received significant snaps in those 6 games he'd be substantially farther ahead than Rice.

   At the end of the day, both Rice and Foster are vital parts of their offensive successes over the last two seasons, but Foster's contract is indicative of what a team should pay for a top tiered back heading into their prime. If Rice's agent continues to snub the Ravens who have (according to sources) offered him the same deal that Arian Foster got, then we could very well be seeing the last year of Ray Rice as the Ravens' primary running back. It's a shame, but it's the nature of the business. The Ravens front office will be smart about it and do not be surprised at all to see an early draft pick this April spent on a running back. It's not that they don't want Rice. It's just that the Ravens are not going to jeopardize losing Joe Flacco and Lardarius Webb over Ray Rice.

Round 1 Mock Up (Post Free Agency Scramble)

All, here is my latest edition of the 2012 NFL Mock Draft. This is just round 1, though I do have rounds 2 and 3 complete as well. I take into consideration best player available, need, value, and the team's history of picks.

1.       Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (6’4” 235lbs). Luck’s display of athleticism only solidified his position as the top overall pick. Indy moved on from Peyton Manning and was able to re-sign Reggie Wayne, so Andrew Luck won’t be throwing at imaginary receivers. Barring some major MAJOR change, Andrew Luck still remains to be the top pick in the draft.  Previous Pick: No Change.

2.       Washington Redskins (Trades 2012 1^st & 2nd, 2013 1^st, & 2014 1^st) – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (6’2” 220lbs). I knew the Skins would do whatever it took to land RGIII and I was right. They gave up more than what Cleveland was willing to give up. Griffin is super athletic and draws a lot of comparisons to guys like Michael Vick when it comes to his ability to scramble, but I think he compares more to Aaron Rodgers. RGIII is an incredible athlete, but he’s also an outstanding passer with great accuracy. He’d be a great fit in Mike Shanahan’s offense. Previous Pick: No Change.

3.       Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC (6’6” 306lbs). Kalil demonstrated the strength and athleticism that makes a premier left tackle in the NFL.  I think the Vikings would like to be the team that field offers to trade out of their pick so someone can take Robert Griffin here, but if they stand pat I think they’ll take the best player available and that without a doubt is Matt Kalil. The Vikings have invested in Christian Ponder and it is always a good idea to give young QB’s as much protection as possible otherwise they end up like David Carr. Kalil is also a fantastic run blocker, so Adrian Peterson should be happy about this selection as well. Previous Pick: No Change.

4.       Cleveland Browns – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (6’1” 215lbs). Blackmon was really impressive at his pro day and ran really well, which alleviated suspicions that he may not have the speed and quickness to gain separation in the NFL. Blackmon does a nice job getting in and out of his routes quickly and efficiently and he uses his hands really well to catch the ball rather than letting it get into his body. Cleveland needs a lot of things, but they have recently stated that they feel like they can be successful with Colt McCoy as long as they get him better weapons.  Previous Pick: Morris Claiborne.

5.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU (5’11” 188lbs). The Bucs significantly overpaid for corner Eric Wright, but they still are likely going to need another corner considering Rhonde Barber is 36 years old and Aqib Talib may face serious jail time. Greg Schiano is a no nonsense kind of coach and he may not be interested in Talib’s services anyway. Claiborne is one of the top rated defensive players in this draft and has all of the skills and qualities you look for in a cover corner. Previous Pick: Justin Blackmon.

6.       St. Louis Rams (From Washington)– Devon Still, DT, Penn State (6’5” 300lbs). Jeff Fisher has to be concerned about his defensive line right now and considering they’ve released Justin Bannan I think DL is going to be a big target on their draft board. Of course if Justin Blackmon or Morris Claiborne drop they’ll be the pick, but if they don’t I think they’ll go for one of the best DL prospects on the board. Chris Long is a decent left end and Robert Quinn was one of the top rated pass rushers last year, but the Rams’ interior DL was pretty pathetic last year and got blown off the line of scrimmage far too much. Still has a fantastic physique for a 300lb man and uses his long arms to shed blocks and get into the backfield quickly.    Previous Pick: Riley Reiff.

7.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE, UNC (6’6” 281lbs). I’ve seen a few mock up’s where they had Coples falling below guys like Mercilus and Melvin Ingram. I just don’t see it. For a team operating out of the 4-3 and needing a pass rusher Coples is a MUST. He needs some mentoring and maturing, but the talent is there and the upside is there. It is rare to see a guy his size move like he does and have the initial burst that he does. The Jags may not be able to keep Jeremy Mincey, which would leave them with an old and oft-injured Aaron Kampman and Matt Roth, who is more of a run stopping DE. Previous Pick: No Change.

8.       Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M (6’4” 221lbs). This is far too high for Tannehill to go and in almost any other draft he’d likely go a lot lower, but this draft only really has about 10-15 guys worthy of a 1^st round selection and a lot of borderline guys. The Dolphins tried to get Alex Smith, but haven’t been able to get him yet and signed David Garrard, which will provide them a nice cushion to ease Tannehill into the NFL. Tannehill would have the luxury of re-uniting with former college coach, Mike Sherman, so grasping the playbook won’t be as difficult. That said, Tannehill does have a lot of upside and has all the tools you look for in a franchise QB.  Previous Pick: Michael Floyd.

9.       Carolina Panthers – Dontari Poe, DT Memphis (6’4” 345lbs). Carolina has had issues on their defensive line for a few seasons now. I think they’d consider taking Michael Floyd or Justin Blackmon if he falls, but if they don’t I think they’ll be gunning for one of the top defensive lineman on the board and Poe is certainly a high riser right now. He was absolutely dominant at the combine and it’s a little unnerving that a man his size can move that quickly and efficiently. He’d give Carolina a major presence with stopping the run and he can provide a burst up the middle and enough power to collapse the pocket and force quarterbacks out. Previous Pick: Devon Still.

10.   Buffalo Bills – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama (6’2” 190lbs). Kirkpatrick was very impressive at his pro-day and having the charges against him dropped is going to push his stock back up a bit. He’s a rare corner with extremely long arms and range. He’s arguably the best press-man corner in this draft and Buffalo has a need at corner. They drafted Aaron Williams last year out of Texas, but he may be better suited as a safety versus a corner and Leodis McKelvin has never really lived up to his 1^st round status. Considering Buffalo has to play Tom Brady and the prolific TE’s twice a year having a corner who can match up with them physically might be intriguing to Buffalo. They’re also in the market for corners with size as they had Stanford Routt in for a visit earlier in the month. Previous Pick: Whitney Mercilus.

11.   Kansas City Chiefs – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama (5’9” 225lbs). The Chiefs had brought in multiple running backs for visits including Michael Bush and Mike Tolbert, but both have left without contracts and it doesn’t look like KC will pursue the position in free agency any longer. Jamaal Charles will be coming back from an ACL injury late in last season and if he’s able to come back to his top performance it’s likely that it will go well into next season, so KC will be looking to bolster their ground game. Greg Cossell believes that Trent Richardson is the best overall player in this draft and I can’t say that I disagree with him. He’s got an innate ability to make people miss with a rare blend of speed, quickness, and natural power.  Previous Pick: Riley Reiff.

12.   Seattle Seahawks – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford (6’5” 315lbs). The Seahawks just signed Matt Flynn and released Robert Gallery. They had some issues with injuries across their OL last year and rookie John Moffit was really up and down for much of the season. I think the Seahawks will take one of the best offensive players available and arguably the 2^nd best offensive lineman in this draft. DeCastro immediately upgrades the left guard spot and will dramatically improve the running game as well as pass protection.  Previous Pick: Nick Perry. 

13.   Arizona Cardinals – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa (6’6” 305lbs). Arizona could go a couple of different ways here, but with DeCastro off the board I think they'll be looking to get the next best offensive lineman prospect and that is without a doubt Riley Reiff. Like traditional linemen from Iowa he's a nasty run blocker and an overachieving pass blocker. He's going to need some coaching on footwork and his arms are a bit short for a prototypical left tackle prospect, but he'd easily be able to beat out Levi Brown, who the Cardinals feel would be better suited as a guard anyway. Previous Pick: David DeCastro.

14.   Dallas Cowboys – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama (6’2” 271lbs). Upshaw isn’t a quick-twitch athlete, but he’s arguably the best 3-4 OLB prospect in this draft. He can line up as a DE and has a nice variety of pass rushing moves, but what I really like about Upshaw is that he’s not a 1-trick pony at all. The Cowboys franchised Anthony Spencer, but he’ll probably be looking to get paid next year and Upshaw would allow the Cowboys to upgrade the position and let Spencer hit the market. Previous Pick: Devon Still.

15.   Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (6’3” 220lbs). This would be an ideal scenario for Philly. Floyd is a big receiver with decent wheels and has a knack for coming up with the big play. What I really like about the guy is his ability to go up and grab passes out of the air at their highest point. His leaping ability is some of the best anyone has seen in a long time. The Eagles re-signed DeSean Jackson, but there are still some questions with his durability, Jeremy Maclin's durability, and whether or not those two are better suited as slot receivers. Previous Pick: Jonathan Martin.

16.   New York Jets – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina (6’2” 264lbs). Melvin Ingram drops a little because Courtney Upshaw is the top rated 3-4 OLB and Ingram is potentially the 2^nd or 3^rd best defensive end prospect in this draft. He has a thick, stocky torso, which is going to make it difficult for him to shed blocks initially, but with some coaching technique he’ll eventually pan out to be one of the best pass rushers in this draft. His tenacity and high motor really separate himself from the rest of the pack and he’s got a knack for coming up with the big play when the game is on the line. Previous Pick: Trent Richardson.

17.   Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina (6’1” 190lbs). The Bengals did try to keep Jon Joseph last off-season, but he had no interest in staying in Cinci. They have a good starting corner in Leon Hall and Nate Clements was ok, but as soon as Hall got injured their secondary was really exposed. Gilmore is a bit of a gambler at cornerback, but he’s got the size, long arms, and ball skills to be a very good starting perimeter corner in the NFL.  Previous Pick: David DeCastro.

18.   San Diego Chargers – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford (6’6” 310lbs). Now that San Diego has locked up Jarrett Johnson I think they’ll be less inclined to go after a pass rusher early on in the draft. They’ve also signed Jared Gaither to an extremely cap-friendly 4 year deal, so they can really focus on the right side of their OL, which has been a weakness for a few years now. Jeromy Clary has never been a good pass protector and he’s an average run blocker at best. Martin has left tackle size, but has right tackle footwork as it stands currently. This would be an ideal pick up for san Diego who could start Martin at RT and if Gaither’s back injury returns then they’d at least have a viable option already on the roster.  Previous Pick: Devon Still.

19.   Chicago Bears – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College (6’3” 247lbs). Kuechly is a pretty ridiculous athlete considering many had him touted as only a 2-down linebacker. He’s a tackling machine with the range to drop into coverage and learning from Brian Urlacher would be a great thing for the Bears and for Kuechly. I think the Bears are a team that really could go multiple ways, but considering that they traded for Brandon Marshall, I think they’ll wait a little to go after a receiver and focus on their defensive side of the ball. Believe it or not, their D has been somewhat of a weakness over the past couple of seasons. I think Kuechly could easily start as a strongside linebacker and eventually replace Urlacher in the middle of the field.   Previous Pick: Stephen Hill.

20.   Tennessee Titans – Janoris Jenkins, CB, N. Alabama (5’11” 193lbs). At one point many felt that Jenkins’ off-field issues could prevent him from being drafted, but he really seemed humbled by his experience of getting booted from Florida’s program. He’s a fantastic corner prospect that has 1^st round talent, but I think some teams are still going to shy away from his obvious personality flaws. That said, Mike Munchak is the type of no nonsense coach that can get the most out of a player like Jenkins and being that Cortland Finnegan has relocated to St. Louis there is a definite need for a corner who can start opposite of Jason McCourty. Previous Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick.

21.   Cincinnati Bengals – Cordy Glenn, OG/T, Georgia (6’6” 345lbs). Glenn is an enormous road-grader of an offensive lineman. He’s got good footwork and long arms. Many scouts believe that he projects better as an offensive guard with the potential to play RT or LT in a pinch. I think the Bengals will give Glenn a long hard look if he is around at pick 21 now that they have signed Benjavarus Green-Ellis at RB and plan to use him as an every down back. Bobbie Williams was really missed when he broke his ankle and he’s likely to retire, so there is a definite need for an interior offensive lineman for the Bengals.  Previous Pick: Lamar Miller. 

22.   Cleveland Browns  (From Atlanta) – Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois (6’4” 265lbs). Mercilus was a real head-turner at the combine. He showed up ready to go and he put on a clinic as a pass rusher prospect and even participated in LB drills to show his versatility and willingness to challenge himself. The Browns stuck gold with Jabaal Sheard last year and look to expand upon their DL by getting arguably one of the better right ends in this entire draft. Mercilus brings a lot as a pass rusher and is an above average run stopper. I’m sure Browns fans will be doing a massive face palm at this point because they haven’t drafted a quarterback yet, but there are literally no other QB prospects worthy of a 1^st round pick. Stay the course, build a standout defense, keep Colt McCoy healthy and give him weapons. See where the chips fall and hopefully take one of the QB’s in 2013.  Previous Pick: Courtney Upshaw.

23.   Detroit Lions – Mark Barron, SS/FS, Alabama (6’1” 213lbs). Barron’s injury has forced him to sit out of the combine and not really participate at Alabama’s pro-day, so those things are going to make his stock fall a little bit, but I don’t see him falling out of the top 25 picks. There is far too much tape on this guy at both FS and SS for a team needing a safety to pass him up. Louis Delmas is a fine free safety, but the Lions haven’t really ever been satisfied at the SS position and even gave Chris Harris a go last season when he was cut by the Bears. Barron is a big time hitter, plays the run well, and has the athleticism to be an effective over the top coverage safety. If it weren’t for his injury he could be a potential top 15 pick. Previous Pick: Luke Kuechly.

24.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech (6’4” 215lbs). Hear me out on this one before you jump all over it. Mike Wallace has recently declared that he wants more money than Larry Fitzgerald. It’s highly likely that he doesn’t get that kind of money, but it’s even more likely that the Steelers won’t be lining up to pay for Mike Wallace after this season when he becomes a UFA. Secondly, the Steelers are going to be pretty tight against the cap again next year, which means both Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, who are RFA’s, are going to probably get a 1^st and 2^nd round tender. At the end of the day, Pittsburgh could go from having one of the bright young WR units in the league to having a lot of nothing. Hill at least ensures a future deep threat with incredible size, which Roethlisberger likes, and it gives the Steelers the option to not pursue Mike Wallace.  Previous Pick: Mike Adams.

25.   Denver Broncos – Kendall Wright Jr, WR, Baylor (5’11” 190lbs). Now that they’ve signed Peyton Manning I think they’ll be doing anything and everything in their power to give him as many weapons as possible. More of the offensive strategy is going to be removed from the ground game and put on Peyton’s shoulders, which means more multiple WR sets and more of an aerial attack. As it stands the Broncos have two pretty good WR’s in Decker and Thomas, but neither have had more than 50 receptions in a season. Wright could be an ideal slot WR with the ability to be a vertical threat and home run threat. He’s got great hands and runs excellent routes.    Previous Pick: Coby Fleener.

26.   Houston Texans – Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama (6’2” 265lbs). Initially I didn’t think that LB would be on the top of the list for Houston, but they recently traded DeMecco Ryans to Philadelphia. Ryans was a heck of a LB, but he just didn’t function well in a 3-4. Now that they only have Brian Cushing I think they’ll take this opportunity to get arguably the best 3-4 LB in this draft after Courtney Upshaw. Hightower is a high character guy who provides good north/south movement as a pass rusher and tackler. He’s not excellent in coverage, but he’ll fit in well to one of the premier 3-4 units in the NFL. Previous Pick: Kelechi Osemele.

27.   New England Patriots  (From New Orleans) – Jerrel Worthy, DT, Michigan State (6’3” 305lbs). Worthy is absolutely worthy of a 1^st round pick. He had a bit of a down year this past season, but his talent is far superior to most defensive tackles in this draft and would function extremely well in Belichik’s 4-3 and 3-4. Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Worthy goes a lot higher than this, but if he falls I think New England will pounce all over him. They signed Jon Fanene and Trevor Scott, but they still need a 5-technique guy who can line up beside Wilfork and cause havoc in the backfield.  Previous Pick: Kendall Wright Jr.

28.   Green Bay Packers – Shea McClellin, OLB/DE, Boise State (6’3” 255lbs). This may be a bit of a reach, but the Packers need someone else who can rush the passer and still perform as a 3-down OLB opposite of Clay Matthews. McClellin may not be the best pass rusher here, but he is a really good one and he’s displayed the intelligence and athleticism to be an every down OLB in Green Bay’s 3-4. He is a solid fundamentals guy and he’s a high motor player on the field. He’s one of my sleeper picks and I think Green Bay fans could quickly get behind this guy. Previous Pick: Peter Konz.

29.   Baltimore Ravens – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina (6’4” 220lbs). I think a lot of Jeffery’s stock will hinge on how he runs at SC’s pro-day this Wednesday, but if he drops here I think Baltimore would give a sincere look at the physical wide out. The Ravens have never had a receiver with his proportions and natural athleticism. He’s got great hands and is a mismatch for almost any cornerback. His routes are a little sloppy, but his wingspan is tremendous and Flacco could really benefit from having a bona fide red zone target at receiver. Ozzie, Bisciotti, and Harbaugh all stated that they want to get receivers who can catch the ball consistently and that was a major problem for Baltimore the last two seasons who have essentially been booted from the playoffs in back-to-back seasons from dropped would-be TD passes. Previous Pick: Dont’a Hightower.

30.   San Francisco 49ers – Kelechi Osemele, OT/G, Iowa State (6’6” 333lbs). The Niners are one of those teams that really just don’t need a whole lot, so they can afford to be extra picky with their draft selections. I think Osemele fits the profile of what Jim Harbaugh wants on offense. Osemele is a big, tough, athletic guy who can play guard or tackle. He projects the best as a guard, but I see him being a starter at RT for the Niners, which would allow them to slide Anthony Davis down to RG in order to replace the recently departed Adam Snyder. Davis was not very consistent last year and if Alex Smith is going to be the man then he needs to be given protection and he needs to have that ground game working as effectively as possible. Previous Pick: Alshon Jeffrey.

31.   New England Patriots – Harrison Smith, FS, Notre Dame (6’2” 215lbs). Smith is one of those borderline 1^st/2^nd rounder guys because he plays a position that doesn’t carry a tremendous amount of value to it, but he’s such a physical specimen that he can play both strong and free safety. He’s rangy, he’s smart, he tackles extremely well, and he’s not bad in coverage either, which is something the Patriots really missed last season. Getting Harrison Smith will allow Devin McCourty to drop back down to corner and it will give the Patriots some over the top help so their corners aren’t being left on islands. Previous Pick: Mark Barron.

32.   New York Giants – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (5’11” 212lbs). Miller is a home run threat every time he touches the ball. He’s got track star speed, excellent hands, and is a 1-cut and go kind of back. The Giants have no intentions of bringing Brandon Jacobs back and there is no telling what Tom Coughlin’s thoughts are on Ahmad Bradshaw. One week he’s the starter, then he misses a meeting, and the next week he barely plays at all. Couple that with Bradshaw’s history with fumbling the ball and I think Jerry Reese would be interested in bringing in some fresh blood at RB. I have Miller rated as the #2 back behind Trent Richardson for several reasons, but the main one is because of his age. Most RB’s reach their peak in their mid 20’s and start to see a significant decline after 27/28 years old, so getting a guy like Miller who just turned 20 and is already extremely talented is great value here with the last pick in round 1. Previous Pick: Orson Charles.