Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Round 1 Mock Draft Update: 15 April 2012

As before, these are the picks that I feel represent the best of both worlds regarding "need" versus "best player available". Most NFL teams put together their big boards based on this philosophy to ensure that they get the guys that they want and they're getting good value as well. 
















1.     Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (6’4” 235lbs). Luck’s display of athleticism only solidified his position as the top overall pick. Indy moved on from Peyton Manning and was able to re-sign Reggie Wayne, so Andrew Luck won’t be throwing at imaginary receivers. Barring some major MAJOR change, Andrew Luck still remains to be the top pick in the draft.  Previous Pick: No Change.







2.     Washington Redskins [from St. Louis] - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (6’2” 220lbs). I knew the Skins would do whatever it took to land RGIII and I was right. They gave up more than what Cleveland was willing to give up. Griffin is super athletic and draws a lot of comparisons to guys like Michael Vick when it comes to his ability to scramble, but I think he compares more to Aaron Rodgers. RGIII is an incredible athlete, but he’s also an outstanding passer with great accuracy. He’d be a great fit in Mike Shanahan’s offense. Previous Pick: No Change.






3.     Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC (6’6” 306lbs). Kalil demonstrated the strength and athleticism that makes a premier left tackle in the NFL.  I think the Vikings would like to be the team that field offers to trade out of their pick so someone can take Robert Griffin here, but if they stand pat I think they’ll take the best player available and that without a doubt is Matt Kalil. The Vikings have invested in Christian Ponder and it is always a good idea to give young QB’s as much protection as possible otherwise they end up like David Carr. Kalil is also a fantastic run blocker, so Adrian Peterson should be happy about this selection as well. Previous Pick: No Change.




4.     Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama (5’9” 224lbs). Even only a few months removed from his knee scope Richardson posted a respectable 40-yard dash running in the area of high 4.4’s to low 4.5’s. With a back as powerful and explosive as he is, 40 times aren’t the be-all/end-all for his ability, value, and upside. Cleveland missed out on trading up for RGIII, so I think they will go for the next best offensive player and that’s easily Trent Richardson. The Browns are going to have to take as much pressure off of Colt McCoy as possible and one of the easiest ways to do that is to improve the running game. They were willing to let Peyton Hillis leave via free agency, so I have to think a large part of that is because they are targeting Trent Richardson.   Previous Pick: Justin Blackmon.









5.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU (5’11” 188lbs). The Bucs significantly overpaid for corner Eric Wright, but they still are likely going to need another corner considering Rhonde Barber is 36 years old and Aqib Talib may face serious jail time. Greg Schiano is a no nonsense kind of coach and he may not be interested in Talib’s services anyway. Claiborne is one of the top rated defensive players in this draft and has all of the skills and qualities you look for in a cover corner. Previous Pick: Justin Blackmon.









6.     St. Louis Rams [from Washington] – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (6’1” 215lbs). Jeff Fisher stated that they want to get better weapons for Sam Bradford and I can completely understand that. They’ve got some talent with Danny Amendola, but Danario Alexander and Brandon Gibson are mediocre at best. Blackmon runs great routes, he sinks his hips and explodes out of breaks, he’s got solid speed, he separates well, and he hardly ever lets a pass get into his body. If he were 2 inches taller he’d probably be in consideration for a top 3 pick.    Previous Pick: Devon Still.




7.     Jacksonville Jaguars – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina (6’2” 265lbs). I see the Jags really looking for explosive players in this draft. I think they’re going to try and get a ton of athletic guys with a ton of upside early on in this draft and let them be baptized by fire. Ingram is a great example of a work-horse type of defensive player. He’s absolutely relentless and posted one of the best 10-yard splits out of any of the DE/OLB’s in this past combine. He doesn’t have that long torso and arms that you predominately look for in defensive ends, but his quickness and burst is elite and that clearly makes up for his lack of “length”. Previous Pick: Quinton Coples.




8.     Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M (6’4” 221lbs). This is far too high for Tannehill to go and in almost any other draft he’d likely go a lot lower, but this draft only really has about 10-15 guys worthy of a 1st round selection and a lot of borderline guys. The Dolphins tried to get Alex Smith, but ended up signing David Garrard, which will provide them a nice cushion to ease Tannehill into the NFL. Tannehill would also have the luxury of re-uniting with former college coach, Mike Sherman, so grasping the playbook won’t be as difficult. That said, Tannehill does have a lot of upside and has all the tools you look for in a franchise QB.  Previous Pick: Michael Floyd.








9.     Carolina Panthers – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina (6’1” 190lbs). Gilmore has been an impressive cornerback for a few seasons now in the SEC. He’s got great size at 6’1” and his ball skills are better than his SEC colleague, Dre Kirkpatrick, which is ultimately why I think Gilmore will go ahead of him. Carolina could go for a DT, but they drafted 2 DT’s last year and I think getting Jon Beason back at 100% will really benefit their front 7 a lot more than folks give them credit for. The Panthers have needed another corner opposite of Chris Gamble for a few years now and this is a good opportunity to get a very underrated player who can be a franchise corner for several years and match up against any NFC South receiver. Previous Pick: Dontari Poe.






10.   Buffalo Bills – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa (6’6” 305lbs). Buffalo has needed a left tackle for far too long and with Demetrius Bell an Eagle there is a wide open need. Luckily for the Bills, the Iowa prospect drops to them here. Reiff doesn’t have the long arms that you look for in a prototypical left tackle, but he more than makes up for it with agility and footwork. He’s a fantastic downhill run blocker and clears defensive linemen out of the way well. He’s a high motor guy and is very coacbable, so getting him to where he needs to be regarding his pass protection shouldn’t be too difficult for Chan Gailey. Previous Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick.






11.   Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College (6’3” 247lbs). The Chiefs are potentially one of the teams that could trade up for Ryan Tannehill, but if they don’t I think they’ll be looking to go defense with their first pick. Derrick Johnson enjoyed somewhat of a break out year and Romeo Crennell is a defensive minded coach and is going to want to make sure that the Chiefs get tougher and better against the run up front. Kuechly is a highly intelligent defensive player who tackles well and can drop into coverage, which makes him an ideal 3-down linebacker. There are some questions as to whether or not he can function in a 3-4, but I think his natural ability will allow him to overcome any schematic changes. Previous Pick: Trent Richardson.







12.   Seattle Seahawks – Quinton Coples, DE, UNC (6’6” 285lbs). Arguably the best defensive lineman prospect in this draft, Coples has a really nice blend of strength and quickness. For a guy his size he explodes off the line and gets around blockers quickly. It’s hard for offensive linemen to get their hands on him because of his long arms and his ability to get off the line as quickly as he can. He’s an outstanding run blocker and he rarely loses battles in pass protection. I think Coples slides a little due to some character and work ethic questions coming out of college. He’s very talented, but he has been known to not give 100% out on the field and during practice and that is something that a lot of coaches don’t want to deal with. However, Pete Carroll is not one of those coaches. He’s always been the kind of guy who isn’t afraid of character concerns and he’s also been a coach who has gotten the most out of players where others could not. Previous Pick: David DeCastro.







13.   Arizona Cardinals – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (6’3” 220lbs). The Cardinals are looking at an off-season where they lost out on Peyton Manning and the 49er’s added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. The Cardinals need play makers and they really need to get someone opposite of Larry Fitzgerald who can take some of the heat off the guy. The Cards re-signed Early Doucet, who is more of a slot receiver, but they still really lack that #2 guy. Floyd gives the Cardinals another big bodied WR with the wheels to get deep and elite leaping ability. A lot of people compare Floyd’s play to Larry Fitzgerald’s style, so why not pair the two up and watch the aerial attack? Previous Pick: Luke Kuechly.







14.   Dallas Cowboys – David DeCastro (6’4” 315lbs). I think Dallas would prefer to go a couple of different ways here, but if DeCastro falls they really have to take him. Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland were injured a lot last season and the Cowboy’s interior offensive line really was inconsistent and led to Tony Romo getting forced into some bad plays. The Cowboys seem to have found a feature back in DeMarco Murray and getting someone like DeCastro will ensure a stout running game for Dallas over the next couple of years. He’s a day-1 starter and for a guy who is 6’4” and change he sinks his hips very well and moves with precision and purpose. There aren’t too many guys I’d consider “elite” players in this draft, but DeCastro is definitely one of them. Previous Pick: Courtney Upshaw.











15.   Philadelphia Eagles – Mark Barron, SS, Alabama (6’1” 213lbs). Even though Barron wasn’t 100% at Alabama’s recent Pro-Day he still ran extremely well and displayed all of the attributes that made him a top prospect. He’s a big hitter and can come up and play strong in the box around the line of scrimmage, but he’s still quick enough to play deep and cover receivers and tight ends. The Eagles have been looking for a physical presence at safety since Brian Dawkins and the past few years their back end has really been inconsistent. Barron gives them flexibility with Kurt Coleman and Nate Allen and he also gives their front 7 a lot of support as a run defender. Previous Pick: Michael Floyd.






16.   New York Jets – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama (6’2” 270lbs). The Jets could go a lot of different ways, but being that their run defense stunk last year, Calvin Pace hasn’t lived up to that contract they gave him, Aaron Maybin is a situational pass rusher, and Bryan Thomas is coming off a season ending injury, I think there is a legit reason for the Jets to take Upshaw at pick 16. He’s absolutely worth it and can play in multiple fronts. He’s not a quick twitch athlete, but he does have some good pass rushing skills and he’s excellent against the run. Rex Ryan is someone who prides himself in tough defense and Upshaw is someone who’d work extremely well in Rex’s hybrid 3-4 scheme. Previous Pick: Jonathan Martin.




17.   Cincinnati Bengals [from Oakland] – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State (6’4” 298lbs). Surprisingly enough, the Bengals have some depth issues on their defensive line. They lost Fanene to the Patriots in free agency, Carlos Dunlap has been a pretty big disappointment and Michael Johnson is really only a situational pass rusher. Domata Peko and Geno Atkins are still very good defensive tackles, but you need a good rotation and Fletcher Cox has taken the draft boards by storm. His ability to  “get skinny” along the line of scrimmage is outstanding and he is extremely disruptive in the backfield. He’s a high motor guy who has a penchant for blowing up plays quickly and chasing QB’s out of the pocket. This is a great pick value wise for the Bengals and gives Mike Zimmer a ton of options for defensive fronts.  Previous Pick: Stephon Gilmore.




18.   San Diego Chargers – Cordy Glenn, OT/G, Georgia (6’5” 346lbs). Glenn is a massive guy who moves extremely well for his size. He played a lot of LT at Georgia, so the experience is there, but I don’t see him as a LT in the NFL unless it’s due to injury. He’s still a fairly raw pass protector and his best attributes are raw strength, long arms, and run blocking ability. The Chargers have a hole at LG with Kris Dielman retiring and Cordy Glenn could also be a candidate to start at RT as Jeromy Clary has been below average for quite some time. Previous Pick: Jerrel Worthy.





19.   Chicago Bears – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU (6’6” 322lbs). Brockers is only 21 years old and has such a tremendous upside to him that he’s definitely going to be a 1st round pick. He didn’t move as well as he would have liked at the combine, but his size and quickness alone are going to get a lot of defensive coordinators’ saliva glands going because on tape this guy just absolutely dominates offensive linemen. He uses leverage extremely well and commands double teams. He needs some coaching on pass rushing skills, but lined up beside Julius Peppers would give offensive linemen fits and he’d also help keep Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs clean.  Previous Pick: Whitney Mercilus.




20.   Tennessee Titans – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama (6’2” 190lbs). The Titans lost Cortland Finnegan and they really need to consider re-vamping their secondary. Jason McCourty is a decent starting corner and Alteraun Verner is good in the slot, but when you’re in the same division with Andre Johnson you want a corner who is physical enough and big enough to stay with him and beat him up a little bit on patterns. Kirkpatrick doesn’t have the elite ball skills, but he’s a good tackler, closes quickly, and has a rare combination of size and speed that you don’t often get an opportunity to draft.  Previous Pick: Janoris Jenkins.





21.   Cincinnati Bengals – Kendall Wright Jr, WR, Baylor (5’11” 195lbs). Jordan Shipley is coming off an ACL tear and the Bengals have no interest in trying to retain Jerome Simpson. It’s obvious that Andy Dalton has what it takes to be a winner in the Queen City, but they really need to continue to give the kid weapons and keep that passing attack as potent as possible. Wright’s stock is going to drop a little because of a poor 40-yard dash time, size, and coming out of a weak defensive conference. There is no doubt that the guy is a special player when he has the ball in his hands, but he’s going to have a bit of a learning curve when it comes to going against NFL caliber defenses. Still, he’s one of the top players in this draft and he can split out wide and play in the slot. Previous Pick: Cordy Glenn.




22.   Cleveland Browns [from Atlanta] – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford (6’6” 310lbs).  The Browns recently cut Tony Pashos and there is NO possible way that they are good with Oneil Cousins starting at RT. Colt McCoy actually looked like a decent QB who could win some games when they leaned heavily on Peyton Hillis and the running game. I think that’s something that Pat Shurmur really needs to get back to and by getting Trent Richardson earlier in the draft and getting on of the best run blocking offensive tackles at 22 is an excellent start to getting back on track offensively. Martin has the size to play on the left side, but I think having book ends of Joe Thomas and Jon Martin would prove to be one of the better young offensive lines in the NFL when you look at how well Jason Pinkston played last year and Alex Mack is one of the best young centers in the NFL. Previous Pick: Whitney Mercilus.




23.   Detroit Lions – Peter Konz, OC, Wisconsin (6’5” 315lbs). The Lions’ brass has to realize that their success hinges on keeping Matt Stafford healthy and protected. Dom Raiola was a decent center, but his skills have declined and getting the best center in this draft could be of some value to the Lions in the bottom of the 1st round. The Lions definitely want to run the ball more than they have, so hopefully getting a mauler like Konz will allow them to take pressure off of Matt Stafford and utilize the ground game a lot more than what they have done as a result of injuries and inconsistency along the OL. Konz could start out at guard for the Lions and eventually move over to center.  Previous Pick: Mark Barron.







24.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Janoris Jenkins, CB, N. Alabama (5’11” 193lbs). The Steelers have some serious issues on the defensive side of the ball, but their secondary hasn’t been very good for a few years now and they’ve really been getting by with a strong pass rush. Now that teams are keying on their pass rushers better and they don’t have guys like Aaron Smith, their secondary has taken a big hit. Against Denver in the playoffs Ike Taylor couldn’t hang with Demaryius Thomas at all and during the regular season Ike had issues drawing PI’s. They let William Gay hit free agency and their young guys are promising, but still very untested. Jenkins seems to have gotten over his ego a bit from being dismissed by Florida’s program and by all accounts was impressive during combine interviews, but still has some question marks about his maturity. He’s arguably the 2nd best cover corner and provides ST’s depth as well. While some coaches may shy away, I think Mike Tomlin would be able to get through to this kid. Previous Pick: Mike Adams.




25.   Denver Broncos – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis (6’4” 346lbs). I think John Fox and John Elway will be interested in the athletic DT here at pick 25. He could go a lot higher than this, but as guys like Mayock have pointed out, the tape just isn’t there. He was incredibly impressive at the combine and displayed athleticism that just seems unimaginable in a guy his size, but if he was that athletic then why didn’t he dominate the competition at Memphis? I think he’s better suited as a 1-gap DT in a 4-3 defense, which would allow his quickness and burst to be used a lot more effectively than if he were to go to a 3-4 scheme. Broderick Bunkley signed with the Saints and Marcus Thomas doesn’t look likely to come back. Previous Pick: Kendall Wright Jr.




26.   Houston Texans – Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford (6’6” 247lbs). This is a copycat league and the Patriots displayed what you can do with multiple TE sets when you have two TE’s who can move all over the field and are dangerous receiving threats. Fleener isn’t as physical as Gronkowski up in New England, but he’s faster and more of a fluid receiver. Owen Daniels is still a good player, but he’s not a great run blocker and he’s got some durability concerns. The Texans really need to start thinking about pulling attention away from Andre Johnson because Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones aren’t cutting it. Fleener gives Gary Kubiak a ton of options for formations, routes, and game planning and being that Fleener is also a good blocker he’ll help take away from any major loss on the right side from Eric Winston being cut. Previous Pick: Kelechi Osemele.




27.   New England Patriots [from New Orleans] – Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois (6’4” 265lbs). Belichik seems committed to running both the 4-3 and 3-4 defensive fronts so I think there is going to be a heavy push for guys who can fill both roles. Mercilus has been compared by many as this year’s version of Jason Pierre-Paul and there is definitely reason to believe that. He’s a quick twitch athlete with an outstanding burst off the line of scrimmage and he can cut better than almost any other defensive end in this draft class, which allows him to get upfield and take direct angles to the QB. While he was only a DE in college he participated in every LB drill at the combine and at his Pro-Day, which shows a lot of character and willingness to get better and prove that he can function well in space as well as a pass rusher. Previous Pick: Michael Brockers.




28.   Green Bay Packers – Shea McClellin, DE, Boise State (6’3” 260lbs). The biggest problem Green Bay had last year down the stretch was not being able to generate a consistent pass rush, which left their secondary extremely vulnerable. Clay Matthews can still be a double-digit sack guy, but he really needs other guys in the front 7 to take the attention off of him and last year they just didn’t have that. The Packers are absolutely enamored with McClellin and during the Senior Bowl and combine he displayed the ability to transition from a pass rushing defensive end to a stand up OLB in a 3-4. There are some scouts who also think that he could eventually play ILB in a 3-4 as well, which only adds to his value, upside, and versatility. Previous Pick: Fletcher Cox.




29.   Baltimore Ravens – Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin (6’4” 315lbs). I think the Ravens shock a lot of folks and go with Kevin Zeitler here. He’s someone that could easily be a day-1 starter. He’s one of the best run blocking offensive linemen (not just guards) in this entire draft and the ground game is something the Ravens desperately need to get better at. He’s a borderline 1st/2nd round guy, so I could see Baltimore trading down here and hoping Zeitler falls to them in the top of the 2nd round, but I think they’d still draft the guy at 29 and go from there. He’s going to need a little coaching on pass protection, but he’s got the tenacity, strength, and athleticism to develop into a very good interior offensive lineman in the NFL. Finally, he’s displayed willingness to transition to center as well by showing the ability to snap the ball and maintain good blocking presence down at the Senior Bowl. Previous Pick: Alshon Jeffery.



 
30.   San Francisco 49er’s – Jerrell Worthy, DT, Michigan State (6’3” 305lbs). Worthy has been somewhat of a sleeper name with ties to the 1st round. Some like him as high as a top 15 pick and going before guys like Still, Cox, and Poe. I’m not sure about going that high, but he’s probably one of the better 5-technique guys in this draft. He had a down year and brought his work ethic into question, but the guy is incredibly talented and may end up becoming one of the best defensive linemen in this draft in a few years. He brought his stock up significantly by displaying the burst and athleticism at the combine that many wondered if he really had. He’s got a lot of upside and the Niners could definitely use some depth and a youth movement on the DL. Previous Pick: Stephen Hill.






31.   New England Patriots – Nick Perry, DE, USC (6’3” 270lbs). Perry was absolutely stellar at the combine. He ran drills for linebacker, he ran drills for defensive ends, his 10-yard split was incredible for a guy weighing around 275lbs and he looked like he was taking the entire process very seriously by showing up at a muscular and defined 270lbs. Keeping with the defensive theme, the Patriots are going to be continuously scouring the draft for guys who can get their defense back to where it needs to be and a lot of it starts up front. They lost Mark Anderson and Andre Carter is a free agent, so getting a pair of explosive pass rushers who can line up with his hand in the dirt and stand up is a must for New England. Previous Pick: Harrison Smith.











32.   New York Giants – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (5’11” 212lbs). I don’t know why more folks don’t have Miller listed as the #2 back behind Trent Richardson. He’s a solid 210-215lbs, he’s agile, he’s explosive, he’s got great hands, and he’s got track star speed. He needs some coaching on pass blocking and he needs to learn patience when running between the tackles because too often I see the kid looking to bounce it outside if there are no immediate lanes between the tackles. The biggest reason I have Miller rated so highly is because he’s only 20 years old and the shelf life of a running back in the NFL is minimal and historically speaking it’s likely that Miller’s best years will come between the age of 23 and 27 years old and by that time (like Clinton Portis) he’ll have been in the league for 7 seasons and will have taken a pounding. Previous Pick: Coby Fleener.