What is Ray Rice Worth?

     If you were to take a poll of NFL fans regarding who the "best" running back in the league was most would probably say Adrian Peterson without batting an eye. However, in the last two seasons both Arian Foster and Ray Rice have rushed for more yards, caught more passes, played in more games, and have more total yards from scrimmage than Peterson and that really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone given the sudden drop off that most running backs face heading into their late 20's. Adrian Peterson is still a work horse of a back, but he's missed 5 games in the last two seasons and for a 220lb running back you have to wonder how his body is going to respond at the "ripe" age of 27 (in running back years, 27-28 years old is where you can historically start to see a decline in a lot of running backs). These reasons are why most educated fans would tell you that Arian Foster and Ray Rice are the two top running backs in the league right now with Matt Forte right behind them.

     The problem that the Baltimore Ravens currently find themselves in is determining what exactly Ray Rice is worth. The Minnesota Vikings signed Adrian Peterson to a 7 year, $100 million contract last September that would pay him roughly $36 million in guaranteed money. So, did the Vikings really set the bar for what top backs are to be paid? Or did they pull a Dan Snyder and sign a star player to a ridiculous contract that far exceeds the total worth of the player and the position? A contract like that can truly jeopardize future salary cap requirements and the Vikings may have to face a harsh truth that he's not worth that kind of contract and no running back really is because most backs rarely maintain a high level of production into their 30's. It just rarely happens. Ray Rice fits into this dilemma because his agent has stated that Rice wants a contract similar to what Peterson got and knowing what we know about the shelf life of a running back there is just no way that the Ravens can fully justify paying a running back an average of nearly $14 million per season when they're trying to field an entire team and have big contracts looming on the horizon for Joe Flacco and Lardarius Webb.

     Enter Arian Foster...

     Foster has been one of the most consistent and dynamic backs over the course of the last two seasons and has combined for over 4,000 yards from scrimmage, over 700 touches [rushes & receptions], and 30 total touchdowns amassing 180 points [ 210 if you include extra points]. His production over the last two season is a major reason for the recent success of the Houston Texans and it was clear that Foster, now 25 years old, was a significant part of the Texans' offense and their projected success. Even when their starting quarterback, Matt Schaub, went down in week 10 and they had to rely on a rookie QB, TJ Yates, they were still able to maintain success due to Foster and the ground game. Even in the playoffs against Baltimore's stout defense, Foster still rattled off 132 yards on the ground and brought the Texans within a lone TD of tying the game up. Both Foster and Ray Rice were free agents heading into this off-season and both were waiting with anticipation to see what the other would do. The reason why Arian Foster's contract is so important is because his contract (not Adrian Peterson's) would set the legitimate bar for what top rated running backs entering their prime should be getting. During the first week in March Foster signed a 5 year contract totalling $43.5 million with $20.75 million in guaranteed money; a far cry from Peterson's $100 million over 7 years.

   Most Ravens' fans will claim that Rice is the better and more complete back and they'd certainly have an argument in that stance. As a Ravens fan I know that I would have a difficult time picking between the two in a backyard football game because both bring a tremendous amount of talent to the team, both are team-first guys, and both have multiple years of consistent production. The only nod I would really give to Rice over Foster is durability and conversely the only nod I would give to Foster over Rice is Foster has that extra gear in open space that Rice doesn't have.

Just comparing the numbers over the last two seasons [2010 & 2011]:

Baltimore's offensive production - 2,054 plays| 10,585 total yards| 735 total points.  
Rice's total offensive contribution (32 regular season games) - 737 total contributing plays [rushes + receptions]| 3,842 total yards| 147 total points [21 total TD's].
Value to offense - 35.8% of total plays| 36.3% of total yards| 20% of total offensive points.

Houston's offensive production - 2,075 plays| 12,140 total yards| 771 total points.
Foster's total offensive contribution (26 regular season games) - 724 total contributing plays [rushes + receptions]| 4,061 total yards| 180 total points [30 total TD's].
Value to offense - 34.89% of total plays| 33.5% of total yards| 23.4% of total offensive points.

   If we were to break it down even further we would see that Rice accounted for 19% of the receiving yards, 63% of the rushes, 67% of the rushing yards, 65% of the rushing TD's, and 9% of the passing TD's. Essentially, Ray Rice is 1/3 of the entire offensive production over the past two seasons. When we look at Foster we find that he accounted for 63% of the rushes, 16% of the passing yards, 63% of the rushing yards, 68% of the rushing TD's, and 9% of the passing TD's. While Rice has the edge on the ratio of rushing yardage and receiving yards, Foster has more points scored, more rushing yards, and more total yards from scrimmage in 6 less games than Rice. It's fair to say that if Foster had played or received significant snaps in those 6 games he'd be substantially farther ahead than Rice.

   At the end of the day, both Rice and Foster are vital parts of their offensive successes over the last two seasons, but Foster's contract is indicative of what a team should pay for a top tiered back heading into their prime. If Rice's agent continues to snub the Ravens who have (according to sources) offered him the same deal that Arian Foster got, then we could very well be seeing the last year of Ray Rice as the Ravens' primary running back. It's a shame, but it's the nature of the business. The Ravens front office will be smart about it and do not be surprised at all to see an early draft pick this April spent on a running back. It's not that they don't want Rice. It's just that the Ravens are not going to jeopardize losing Joe Flacco and Lardarius Webb over Ray Rice.

Round 1 Mock Up (Post Free Agency Scramble)

All, here is my latest edition of the 2012 NFL Mock Draft. This is just round 1, though I do have rounds 2 and 3 complete as well. I take into consideration best player available, need, value, and the team's history of picks.

1.       Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (6’4” 235lbs). Luck’s display of athleticism only solidified his position as the top overall pick. Indy moved on from Peyton Manning and was able to re-sign Reggie Wayne, so Andrew Luck won’t be throwing at imaginary receivers. Barring some major MAJOR change, Andrew Luck still remains to be the top pick in the draft.  Previous Pick: No Change.

2.       Washington Redskins (Trades 2012 1^st & 2nd, 2013 1^st, & 2014 1^st) – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (6’2” 220lbs). I knew the Skins would do whatever it took to land RGIII and I was right. They gave up more than what Cleveland was willing to give up. Griffin is super athletic and draws a lot of comparisons to guys like Michael Vick when it comes to his ability to scramble, but I think he compares more to Aaron Rodgers. RGIII is an incredible athlete, but he’s also an outstanding passer with great accuracy. He’d be a great fit in Mike Shanahan’s offense. Previous Pick: No Change.

3.       Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC (6’6” 306lbs). Kalil demonstrated the strength and athleticism that makes a premier left tackle in the NFL.  I think the Vikings would like to be the team that field offers to trade out of their pick so someone can take Robert Griffin here, but if they stand pat I think they’ll take the best player available and that without a doubt is Matt Kalil. The Vikings have invested in Christian Ponder and it is always a good idea to give young QB’s as much protection as possible otherwise they end up like David Carr. Kalil is also a fantastic run blocker, so Adrian Peterson should be happy about this selection as well. Previous Pick: No Change.

4.       Cleveland Browns – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (6’1” 215lbs). Blackmon was really impressive at his pro day and ran really well, which alleviated suspicions that he may not have the speed and quickness to gain separation in the NFL. Blackmon does a nice job getting in and out of his routes quickly and efficiently and he uses his hands really well to catch the ball rather than letting it get into his body. Cleveland needs a lot of things, but they have recently stated that they feel like they can be successful with Colt McCoy as long as they get him better weapons.  Previous Pick: Morris Claiborne.

5.       Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU (5’11” 188lbs). The Bucs significantly overpaid for corner Eric Wright, but they still are likely going to need another corner considering Rhonde Barber is 36 years old and Aqib Talib may face serious jail time. Greg Schiano is a no nonsense kind of coach and he may not be interested in Talib’s services anyway. Claiborne is one of the top rated defensive players in this draft and has all of the skills and qualities you look for in a cover corner. Previous Pick: Justin Blackmon.

6.       St. Louis Rams (From Washington)– Devon Still, DT, Penn State (6’5” 300lbs). Jeff Fisher has to be concerned about his defensive line right now and considering they’ve released Justin Bannan I think DL is going to be a big target on their draft board. Of course if Justin Blackmon or Morris Claiborne drop they’ll be the pick, but if they don’t I think they’ll go for one of the best DL prospects on the board. Chris Long is a decent left end and Robert Quinn was one of the top rated pass rushers last year, but the Rams’ interior DL was pretty pathetic last year and got blown off the line of scrimmage far too much. Still has a fantastic physique for a 300lb man and uses his long arms to shed blocks and get into the backfield quickly.    Previous Pick: Riley Reiff.

7.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE, UNC (6’6” 281lbs). I’ve seen a few mock up’s where they had Coples falling below guys like Mercilus and Melvin Ingram. I just don’t see it. For a team operating out of the 4-3 and needing a pass rusher Coples is a MUST. He needs some mentoring and maturing, but the talent is there and the upside is there. It is rare to see a guy his size move like he does and have the initial burst that he does. The Jags may not be able to keep Jeremy Mincey, which would leave them with an old and oft-injured Aaron Kampman and Matt Roth, who is more of a run stopping DE. Previous Pick: No Change.

8.       Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M (6’4” 221lbs). This is far too high for Tannehill to go and in almost any other draft he’d likely go a lot lower, but this draft only really has about 10-15 guys worthy of a 1^st round selection and a lot of borderline guys. The Dolphins tried to get Alex Smith, but haven’t been able to get him yet and signed David Garrard, which will provide them a nice cushion to ease Tannehill into the NFL. Tannehill would have the luxury of re-uniting with former college coach, Mike Sherman, so grasping the playbook won’t be as difficult. That said, Tannehill does have a lot of upside and has all the tools you look for in a franchise QB.  Previous Pick: Michael Floyd.

9.       Carolina Panthers – Dontari Poe, DT Memphis (6’4” 345lbs). Carolina has had issues on their defensive line for a few seasons now. I think they’d consider taking Michael Floyd or Justin Blackmon if he falls, but if they don’t I think they’ll be gunning for one of the top defensive lineman on the board and Poe is certainly a high riser right now. He was absolutely dominant at the combine and it’s a little unnerving that a man his size can move that quickly and efficiently. He’d give Carolina a major presence with stopping the run and he can provide a burst up the middle and enough power to collapse the pocket and force quarterbacks out. Previous Pick: Devon Still.

10.   Buffalo Bills – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama (6’2” 190lbs). Kirkpatrick was very impressive at his pro-day and having the charges against him dropped is going to push his stock back up a bit. He’s a rare corner with extremely long arms and range. He’s arguably the best press-man corner in this draft and Buffalo has a need at corner. They drafted Aaron Williams last year out of Texas, but he may be better suited as a safety versus a corner and Leodis McKelvin has never really lived up to his 1^st round status. Considering Buffalo has to play Tom Brady and the prolific TE’s twice a year having a corner who can match up with them physically might be intriguing to Buffalo. They’re also in the market for corners with size as they had Stanford Routt in for a visit earlier in the month. Previous Pick: Whitney Mercilus.

11.   Kansas City Chiefs – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama (5’9” 225lbs). The Chiefs had brought in multiple running backs for visits including Michael Bush and Mike Tolbert, but both have left without contracts and it doesn’t look like KC will pursue the position in free agency any longer. Jamaal Charles will be coming back from an ACL injury late in last season and if he’s able to come back to his top performance it’s likely that it will go well into next season, so KC will be looking to bolster their ground game. Greg Cossell believes that Trent Richardson is the best overall player in this draft and I can’t say that I disagree with him. He’s got an innate ability to make people miss with a rare blend of speed, quickness, and natural power.  Previous Pick: Riley Reiff.

12.   Seattle Seahawks – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford (6’5” 315lbs). The Seahawks just signed Matt Flynn and released Robert Gallery. They had some issues with injuries across their OL last year and rookie John Moffit was really up and down for much of the season. I think the Seahawks will take one of the best offensive players available and arguably the 2^nd best offensive lineman in this draft. DeCastro immediately upgrades the left guard spot and will dramatically improve the running game as well as pass protection.  Previous Pick: Nick Perry. 

13.   Arizona Cardinals – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa (6’6” 305lbs). Arizona could go a couple of different ways here, but with DeCastro off the board I think they'll be looking to get the next best offensive lineman prospect and that is without a doubt Riley Reiff. Like traditional linemen from Iowa he's a nasty run blocker and an overachieving pass blocker. He's going to need some coaching on footwork and his arms are a bit short for a prototypical left tackle prospect, but he'd easily be able to beat out Levi Brown, who the Cardinals feel would be better suited as a guard anyway. Previous Pick: David DeCastro.

14.   Dallas Cowboys – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama (6’2” 271lbs). Upshaw isn’t a quick-twitch athlete, but he’s arguably the best 3-4 OLB prospect in this draft. He can line up as a DE and has a nice variety of pass rushing moves, but what I really like about Upshaw is that he’s not a 1-trick pony at all. The Cowboys franchised Anthony Spencer, but he’ll probably be looking to get paid next year and Upshaw would allow the Cowboys to upgrade the position and let Spencer hit the market. Previous Pick: Devon Still.

15.   Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame (6’3” 220lbs). This would be an ideal scenario for Philly. Floyd is a big receiver with decent wheels and has a knack for coming up with the big play. What I really like about the guy is his ability to go up and grab passes out of the air at their highest point. His leaping ability is some of the best anyone has seen in a long time. The Eagles re-signed DeSean Jackson, but there are still some questions with his durability, Jeremy Maclin's durability, and whether or not those two are better suited as slot receivers. Previous Pick: Jonathan Martin.

16.   New York Jets – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina (6’2” 264lbs). Melvin Ingram drops a little because Courtney Upshaw is the top rated 3-4 OLB and Ingram is potentially the 2^nd or 3^rd best defensive end prospect in this draft. He has a thick, stocky torso, which is going to make it difficult for him to shed blocks initially, but with some coaching technique he’ll eventually pan out to be one of the best pass rushers in this draft. His tenacity and high motor really separate himself from the rest of the pack and he’s got a knack for coming up with the big play when the game is on the line. Previous Pick: Trent Richardson.

17.   Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina (6’1” 190lbs). The Bengals did try to keep Jon Joseph last off-season, but he had no interest in staying in Cinci. They have a good starting corner in Leon Hall and Nate Clements was ok, but as soon as Hall got injured their secondary was really exposed. Gilmore is a bit of a gambler at cornerback, but he’s got the size, long arms, and ball skills to be a very good starting perimeter corner in the NFL.  Previous Pick: David DeCastro.

18.   San Diego Chargers – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford (6’6” 310lbs). Now that San Diego has locked up Jarrett Johnson I think they’ll be less inclined to go after a pass rusher early on in the draft. They’ve also signed Jared Gaither to an extremely cap-friendly 4 year deal, so they can really focus on the right side of their OL, which has been a weakness for a few years now. Jeromy Clary has never been a good pass protector and he’s an average run blocker at best. Martin has left tackle size, but has right tackle footwork as it stands currently. This would be an ideal pick up for san Diego who could start Martin at RT and if Gaither’s back injury returns then they’d at least have a viable option already on the roster.  Previous Pick: Devon Still.

19.   Chicago Bears – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College (6’3” 247lbs). Kuechly is a pretty ridiculous athlete considering many had him touted as only a 2-down linebacker. He’s a tackling machine with the range to drop into coverage and learning from Brian Urlacher would be a great thing for the Bears and for Kuechly. I think the Bears are a team that really could go multiple ways, but considering that they traded for Brandon Marshall, I think they’ll wait a little to go after a receiver and focus on their defensive side of the ball. Believe it or not, their D has been somewhat of a weakness over the past couple of seasons. I think Kuechly could easily start as a strongside linebacker and eventually replace Urlacher in the middle of the field.   Previous Pick: Stephen Hill.

20.   Tennessee Titans – Janoris Jenkins, CB, N. Alabama (5’11” 193lbs). At one point many felt that Jenkins’ off-field issues could prevent him from being drafted, but he really seemed humbled by his experience of getting booted from Florida’s program. He’s a fantastic corner prospect that has 1^st round talent, but I think some teams are still going to shy away from his obvious personality flaws. That said, Mike Munchak is the type of no nonsense coach that can get the most out of a player like Jenkins and being that Cortland Finnegan has relocated to St. Louis there is a definite need for a corner who can start opposite of Jason McCourty. Previous Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick.

21.   Cincinnati Bengals – Cordy Glenn, OG/T, Georgia (6’6” 345lbs). Glenn is an enormous road-grader of an offensive lineman. He’s got good footwork and long arms. Many scouts believe that he projects better as an offensive guard with the potential to play RT or LT in a pinch. I think the Bengals will give Glenn a long hard look if he is around at pick 21 now that they have signed Benjavarus Green-Ellis at RB and plan to use him as an every down back. Bobbie Williams was really missed when he broke his ankle and he’s likely to retire, so there is a definite need for an interior offensive lineman for the Bengals.  Previous Pick: Lamar Miller. 

22.   Cleveland Browns  (From Atlanta) – Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois (6’4” 265lbs). Mercilus was a real head-turner at the combine. He showed up ready to go and he put on a clinic as a pass rusher prospect and even participated in LB drills to show his versatility and willingness to challenge himself. The Browns stuck gold with Jabaal Sheard last year and look to expand upon their DL by getting arguably one of the better right ends in this entire draft. Mercilus brings a lot as a pass rusher and is an above average run stopper. I’m sure Browns fans will be doing a massive face palm at this point because they haven’t drafted a quarterback yet, but there are literally no other QB prospects worthy of a 1^st round pick. Stay the course, build a standout defense, keep Colt McCoy healthy and give him weapons. See where the chips fall and hopefully take one of the QB’s in 2013.  Previous Pick: Courtney Upshaw.

23.   Detroit Lions – Mark Barron, SS/FS, Alabama (6’1” 213lbs). Barron’s injury has forced him to sit out of the combine and not really participate at Alabama’s pro-day, so those things are going to make his stock fall a little bit, but I don’t see him falling out of the top 25 picks. There is far too much tape on this guy at both FS and SS for a team needing a safety to pass him up. Louis Delmas is a fine free safety, but the Lions haven’t really ever been satisfied at the SS position and even gave Chris Harris a go last season when he was cut by the Bears. Barron is a big time hitter, plays the run well, and has the athleticism to be an effective over the top coverage safety. If it weren’t for his injury he could be a potential top 15 pick. Previous Pick: Luke Kuechly.

24.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech (6’4” 215lbs). Hear me out on this one before you jump all over it. Mike Wallace has recently declared that he wants more money than Larry Fitzgerald. It’s highly likely that he doesn’t get that kind of money, but it’s even more likely that the Steelers won’t be lining up to pay for Mike Wallace after this season when he becomes a UFA. Secondly, the Steelers are going to be pretty tight against the cap again next year, which means both Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, who are RFA’s, are going to probably get a 1^st and 2^nd round tender. At the end of the day, Pittsburgh could go from having one of the bright young WR units in the league to having a lot of nothing. Hill at least ensures a future deep threat with incredible size, which Roethlisberger likes, and it gives the Steelers the option to not pursue Mike Wallace.  Previous Pick: Mike Adams.

25.   Denver Broncos – Kendall Wright Jr, WR, Baylor (5’11” 190lbs). Now that they’ve signed Peyton Manning I think they’ll be doing anything and everything in their power to give him as many weapons as possible. More of the offensive strategy is going to be removed from the ground game and put on Peyton’s shoulders, which means more multiple WR sets and more of an aerial attack. As it stands the Broncos have two pretty good WR’s in Decker and Thomas, but neither have had more than 50 receptions in a season. Wright could be an ideal slot WR with the ability to be a vertical threat and home run threat. He’s got great hands and runs excellent routes.    Previous Pick: Coby Fleener.

26.   Houston Texans – Dont’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama (6’2” 265lbs). Initially I didn’t think that LB would be on the top of the list for Houston, but they recently traded DeMecco Ryans to Philadelphia. Ryans was a heck of a LB, but he just didn’t function well in a 3-4. Now that they only have Brian Cushing I think they’ll take this opportunity to get arguably the best 3-4 LB in this draft after Courtney Upshaw. Hightower is a high character guy who provides good north/south movement as a pass rusher and tackler. He’s not excellent in coverage, but he’ll fit in well to one of the premier 3-4 units in the NFL. Previous Pick: Kelechi Osemele.

27.   New England Patriots  (From New Orleans) – Jerrel Worthy, DT, Michigan State (6’3” 305lbs). Worthy is absolutely worthy of a 1^st round pick. He had a bit of a down year this past season, but his talent is far superior to most defensive tackles in this draft and would function extremely well in Belichik’s 4-3 and 3-4. Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Worthy goes a lot higher than this, but if he falls I think New England will pounce all over him. They signed Jon Fanene and Trevor Scott, but they still need a 5-technique guy who can line up beside Wilfork and cause havoc in the backfield.  Previous Pick: Kendall Wright Jr.

28.   Green Bay Packers – Shea McClellin, OLB/DE, Boise State (6’3” 255lbs). This may be a bit of a reach, but the Packers need someone else who can rush the passer and still perform as a 3-down OLB opposite of Clay Matthews. McClellin may not be the best pass rusher here, but he is a really good one and he’s displayed the intelligence and athleticism to be an every down OLB in Green Bay’s 3-4. He is a solid fundamentals guy and he’s a high motor player on the field. He’s one of my sleeper picks and I think Green Bay fans could quickly get behind this guy. Previous Pick: Peter Konz.

29.   Baltimore Ravens – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina (6’4” 220lbs). I think a lot of Jeffery’s stock will hinge on how he runs at SC’s pro-day this Wednesday, but if he drops here I think Baltimore would give a sincere look at the physical wide out. The Ravens have never had a receiver with his proportions and natural athleticism. He’s got great hands and is a mismatch for almost any cornerback. His routes are a little sloppy, but his wingspan is tremendous and Flacco could really benefit from having a bona fide red zone target at receiver. Ozzie, Bisciotti, and Harbaugh all stated that they want to get receivers who can catch the ball consistently and that was a major problem for Baltimore the last two seasons who have essentially been booted from the playoffs in back-to-back seasons from dropped would-be TD passes. Previous Pick: Dont’a Hightower.

30.   San Francisco 49ers – Kelechi Osemele, OT/G, Iowa State (6’6” 333lbs). The Niners are one of those teams that really just don’t need a whole lot, so they can afford to be extra picky with their draft selections. I think Osemele fits the profile of what Jim Harbaugh wants on offense. Osemele is a big, tough, athletic guy who can play guard or tackle. He projects the best as a guard, but I see him being a starter at RT for the Niners, which would allow them to slide Anthony Davis down to RG in order to replace the recently departed Adam Snyder. Davis was not very consistent last year and if Alex Smith is going to be the man then he needs to be given protection and he needs to have that ground game working as effectively as possible. Previous Pick: Alshon Jeffrey.

31.   New England Patriots – Harrison Smith, FS, Notre Dame (6’2” 215lbs). Smith is one of those borderline 1^st/2^nd rounder guys because he plays a position that doesn’t carry a tremendous amount of value to it, but he’s such a physical specimen that he can play both strong and free safety. He’s rangy, he’s smart, he tackles extremely well, and he’s not bad in coverage either, which is something the Patriots really missed last season. Getting Harrison Smith will allow Devin McCourty to drop back down to corner and it will give the Patriots some over the top help so their corners aren’t being left on islands. Previous Pick: Mark Barron.

32.   New York Giants – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (5’11” 212lbs). Miller is a home run threat every time he touches the ball. He’s got track star speed, excellent hands, and is a 1-cut and go kind of back. The Giants have no intentions of bringing Brandon Jacobs back and there is no telling what Tom Coughlin’s thoughts are on Ahmad Bradshaw. One week he’s the starter, then he misses a meeting, and the next week he barely plays at all. Couple that with Bradshaw’s history with fumbling the ball and I think Jerry Reese would be interested in bringing in some fresh blood at RB. I have Miller rated as the #2 back behind Trent Richardson for several reasons, but the main one is because of his age. Most RB’s reach their peak in their mid 20’s and start to see a significant decline after 27/28 years old, so getting a guy like Miller who just turned 20 and is already extremely talented is great value here with the last pick in round 1. Previous Pick: Orson Charles.

Team? Or, Money?

For someone that has always been portrayed to be a beacon of integrity within the National Football League, Peyton Manning sure dropped that whole act and went for one last big pay day rather than going to a city and state that idolizes him no matter what.

Multiple sources are claiming that the Broncos are going to be guaranteeing Peyton somewhere in the vicinity of $60 Million over 5 years with a total contract worth upwards of $85-90 Million. So, why does this whole situation kind of leave a bitter taste in a lot of fans' mouths? Well, consider that the other two teams that were predominately in the running to land the quarterback (Tennessee Titans & San Francisco 49er's) have a better team, a better shot at getting to the playoffs, a better supporting cast, and arguably a better schedule. The reality is that Peyton Manning has enjoyed playing in a domed facility his entire career, which any football player will tell you makes it a lot easier on the passing game, and rather than going to two teams with moderate winters and warm falls, he chooses to go play in one of the colder NFL cities in the country.

Peyton Manning may go down as the greatest of all time and you'd certainly hear no argument from me, but why he would choose to go play in Denver when his career numbers have slumped when playing outdoors in cold weather is entirely confusing to me. Especially going to play for a guy (John Elway) who obviously has no loyalty to his players when you consider how during the season and even early in the off-season he stated several times that Tebow was "their guy". To top it all off, the injury that he has been rehabbing is going to be impacted even more from playing in sub-40 degree weather starting well before the midway mark of the season. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense until you look at the potential numbers that John Elway has thrown at him.

Denver fans will say that their defense is better...well, no it's not. Their defense is nowhere near as good as San Francisco's who had the #1 overall defense last season. Denver fans will also say that their offense has better players in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker...well, no they don't. Decker and Thomas are two young receivers with a lot of potential, but they aren't better than Kenny Britt, Chris Johnson, Jared Cook, and Nate Washington down in Tennessee. Finally, from a personnel stance, both San Francisco and Tennessee have a significantly better offensive line as Pro Football Focus (www.profootballfocus.com) had the Broncos rated in the bottom of the league for offensive line play and guys like JD Walton (center) were rated as one of the worst individual offensive linemen in the league last year. Sure, they can bring Jeff Saturday and Dallas Clark, but they aren't going to be able to re-tool that entire offensive line.

Finally, the schedule is really a head scratcher for me because not only will Peyton have to play a pretty competitive Chargers, Raiders, and Chiefs team, but the AFC West is also scheduled to play the NFC South (Panthers, Bucs, Saints, & Falcons) and AFC North (Ravens, Steelers, Browns, & Bengals) as well as the 13-3 Patriots and 10-6 Houston Texans. All of which have a combined record of 139-117 from 2011. More importantly 7 of those teams were in the playoffs last year and 3 of them had top rated defenses (Houston, Pittsburgh, & Baltimore). Had Peyton chose Tennessee, he'd be facing teams like Minnesota, Miami, Jacksonville, and his former Colts, all of which have below average defenses.

I get it though. How could you turn down $60 million dollars at 36 years old? I just figured he'd rather finish up his career in a city (Nashville, TN) where he would have been appreciated regardless of whether or not he won or lost, but just because he's Peyton Manning and he's a legend in that state. Even when playing for the Colts he'd never get booed by the Tennessee Titans' faithful.

The Most Elusive 300lb Man In Modern Sports

The Most Elusive 300lb Man In Modern Sports

By: S. Paul Lukoskie

            Ever since Jonathan Ogden retired at the end of the 2007 season the Baltimore Ravens have been desperately searching for a player that can hold down the left side of the offensive line. Even though the coaching staff and front office can find late round gems at almost every position on the defensive side of the ball, the offensive tackle position still remains a glaring weak spot nearly 5 years and upwards of 10 draft picks and free agent acquisitions. Why is it that the Ravens have such a tough time finding an answer to protect the best quarterback this franchise has ever had? Well, after a lot of research, I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s not just the Ravens.

Free Agent Acquisitions:

            The fact is that premier left tackles in the NFL do not hit the open market. Teams almost always lock these guys up well before they are at a restricted or unrestricted free agency point. Consider the top LT’s over the last 5 years. How many were actually permitted to hit the market while they were in their prime? Even average LT’s such as Donald Penn with Tampa Bay were franchised and then extended. Joe Thomas was even extended before he reached the end of his rookie deal with Cleveland and the Browns are not a beacon for spending. In your own opinion, if you were to consider your top left tackles in the NFL (for me it would be Joe Thomas, Jake Long, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Ryan Clady, and Michael Roos), how many times do those guys hit free agency before they are 31,32, or 33 years old? The answer is quite simply never because the rarity of finding a great to even an average left tackle is next to impossible.

The NFL Draft: 

            I turned my attention to the draft next and my discovery was right what I thought it would be, but I was a little stunned to see the magnitude of it.

*For the purpose of my research I produced a scale and assigned arbitrary numerical values to the different “levels” of left tackles in the drafts dating back to 2008. I'm not going to include the 2011 draft class because it is too early to determine how any of these players will develop.

Scale:

5 - Good to Outstanding Starting LT in the NFL. [Think Joe Thomas & D’Brickashaw Ferguson]
4 - Above Average Starting LT in the NFL. [Think Duane Brown & Joe Staley]
3 - Average Starting/Performed decently when given opportunity at LT. [Think Jordan Gross & Donald Penn]
2 - Below Average Starting LT in NFL/Limited time to develop before team moves on. [Think J’Marcus Webb & Michael Oher]
1 - Should not be a LT/Depth tackle with little chance to ever start/Cut/Out of NFL. [Think Tyler Polumbus & Levi Brown]

2010 NFL Draft:  

   Out of 23 total offensive tackles drafted, only 9 were given positional designations of left tackle (39%), only 5 started at least one full season (22%), of those 5 starting left tackles 2 were taken in the top 10 of the draft and have outperformed their draft colleagues.

            4^th Overall – Trent Williams, Washington Redskins. [Grade: 4. He’s a solid young tackle when he’s healthy. Definitely could improve to a 5 as he enters his prime.]

            6^th Overall – Russell Okung, Seattle Seahawks. [Grade: 4. Like Trent Williams, he’s a very talented young left tackle entering his prime.]

            2^nd Round – Rodger Saffold, St. Louis Rams. [Grade: 2. Has shown flashes of eventually becoming a 3 or 4, but has been inconsistent. Probably better suited at right tackle or guard.]

            3^rd Round – Jared Veldheer, Oakland Raiders. [Grade: 4. To find an above average starting left tackle in the 3^rd round is a massive anomaly. Oakland got very lucky.]

            4^th Round – Jason Fox, Detroit Lions. [Grade: 1. He’s a 2^nd string guy behind Jeff Backus who is a below average starting left tackle.]

            5^th Round – Ed Wang, Buffalo Bills. [Grade 1: Depth swing tackle on a team that has been desperate for a good left tackle for years.]

            6^th Round – Marshall Newhouse. [Grade 3: Outperformed two 1^st round left tackle prospects in Bryan Bulaga and Derrek Sherrod. Played well in place for injured Chad Clifton. In line to start at LT for Green Bay in 2012. Anomaly.]

            6^th Round – Ramon Harewood, Baltimore Ravens. [Grade: 1. Two major knee surgeries on both knees in back-to-back seasons. He’ll be out of the NFL after this summer.]

            7^th Round – J’Marcus Webb, Chicago Bears. [Grade: 2. Started at LT for Chicago in 2011, but was really inconsistent. Team will likely move on before Webb reaches potential.]

   So, in the 2010 draft the “average grade” for left tackles after the 1^st round was a 2 and the major likelihood that only Jared Veldheer will be the only quality starting left tackle chosen after the 1^st round. If you were to consider all left tackles taken after the top 15 you would still have an average of 2 as there were no left tackles taken after Okung until Rodger Saffold in the top of the 2^nd round.

2009 NFL Draft: 

   In the 2009 draft we saw 21 offensive tackles chosen, including Alex Boone who was undrafted. Of those 21 tackles 5 were given the positional designation of left tackle for at least one full season (24%) and of those 5 there were 3 who were named starting left tackles (14%). The interesting thing about the 2009 draft is we started to see right tackles being valued extremely high as well, but their initial selection was as a left tackle prospect.

            8^th Overall – Eugene Monroe, Jacksonville Jaguars. [Grade: 3. He’s been a solid starter for the Jags for 3 seasons now. Will likely get extended in Jacksonville and has potential to get up to a 4.]

            23^rd Overall – Michael Oher, Baltimore Ravens. [Grade: 2. He has the athleticism to be an average left tackle, but the technique just isn’t there and has shown better poise at right tackle. Ravens will likely move on from him after his rookie contract is up in 2013.]

            2^nd Round – William Beatty, New York Giants. [Grade: 2. Athletic and has prototypical size, but lacks technique and durability. Probably better suited as a right tackle or guard.]

            4^th Round – Troy Kropog, Tennessee Titans. [Grade: 1. 2^nd string left tackle behind one of the best in the NFL, Michael Roos.]

            7^th Round – Lydon Murtha, Miami Dolphins. [Grade: 1. He was actually drafted by Detroit before being cut. 2^nd string tackle behind one of the best young guys in the NFL, Jake Long.]

   So, similar to the 2010 Draft, the “average grade” for left tackles taken after round 1 was a 2 and if you were to include everyone taken outside of the top 15 you’d have an even lower “average grade” of 1.5.

2008 NFL Draft: 

   The 2008 draft yielded some of the best left tackle prospects we’ve seen in years. Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Brandon Albert, Sam Baker, and Duane Brown have all been average to the best in the league entering their prime. Jake Long and Ryan Clady are two of the most consistent and well rounded pure left tackles in the league and Duane Brown went from a right tackle/guard projection to becoming one of the most athletic and dominant run blockers in the NFL. That said, out of 25 offensive tackles taken only 7 were given the position designation of left tackle (28%) and 5 of those 7 were taken in the 1^st round. Of those 5 taken in the first round 3 were taken in the top 15 and other than Duane Brown in Houston, only 2 can really be given an above average to great accolade.

            1^st Overall – Jake Long, Miami Dolphins. [Grade: 5. He’s got the size, athleticism, and technique that all great left tackles have. He’s one of the top 3 left tackles in the NFL and he’s just entering his prime.]

            12^th Overall – Ryan Clady, Denver Broncos. [Grade: 5. Was a day-1 starter at left tackle in Denver and is widely considered one of the top 5 left tackles in the NFL.]

            15^th Overall – Brandon Albert, Kansas City Chiefs. [Grade: 3. Never truly impressed as a left tackle, but has always been solid. There are still some who feel if KC can get an upgrade at left tackle that they’d actually move Brandon Albert to RT.]

            21^st Overall – Sam Baker, Atlanta Falcons. [Grade: 3. He’s been up and down and was replaced at times this past season by Will Svitek. Still, he’s better than a lot of other teams’ left tackles.]

            26^th Overall – Duane Brown, Houston Texans. [Grade: 4. A lot of folks thought this was a major reach by Houston (who traded back up for him). Duane Brown has developed into a very athletic and nimble left tackle for someone who was projected as a right tackle or guard.]

            4^th Round – Anthony Collins, Cincinnati Bengals. [Grade: 1. Actually, Collins isn’t that bad of a player and has done decently well when given the opportunity. However, he sat behind one of the better LT’s in the NFL, Andrew Whitworth.]

            7^th Round – Demetrius Bell, Buffalo Bills. [Grade: 2. Bell has been a below average starting left tackle for Buffalo over the past couple of years. It took him a while to develop and even after developing he’s still just not very good, which is why he’s an unsigned free agent right now in his prime.]

   This draft featured a first round where a ton of tackles were taken and a majority of them ended up moving to different positions after being prospective left tackles (Gosder Cherilus, Chris Williams, and Jeff Otah). There were also multiple offensive tackle prospects who ended up dropping to guard and becoming pro-bowl caliber guards (Josh Sitton & Carl Nicks, for example). So, even though there were really only 2 left tackles taken after the 1^st round the “average grade” was 1.5. After the top 15 the average jumps up a little bit to 2.5 and the overall average of all the left tackles from the 2008 draft is 3.4, which is pretty good.

           

    As we can see from looking at these 3 draft classes, the left tackle position is extremely difficult to project and develop and it’s almost impossible to find quality starting caliber left tackles after the 1^st round and arguably after the top 15. In 3 draft classes (2008, 2009, & 2010) there have only been 4 starting caliber left tackles with a grade of 3 or higher (Brown, Baker, Veldheer, & Newhouse) and only 2 (Brown & Veldheer) who are performing at an above average level. Between those two, Veldheer was the only one taken after the 1^st round, which why I say he is such an anomaly.

            When you think about the evolution of the NFL offense and how it has become centered around the quarterback and prolific passing attacks you can understand why the left tackle is arguably the most important position on the field and why so many teams are desperately searching for an answer at the left tackle position and why teams clamor over signing even the most average left tackle in the league. Some teams are even so desperate that they’ll give a long term deal to a below average left tackle (as evidenced by Arizona re-signing Levi Brown) in the hopes that they can develop into something more.

            At the end of the day, if you want a shot at a top left tackle you have to be picking in the top 15 of a draft. So, in this upcoming 2012 draft look for at least 3 left tackle prospects to be taken in the top 15 (Matt Kalil, Jon Martin, & Riley Reiff) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see upwards of 5 tackles taken in the 1^st round (Mike Adams, Kelichi Osemele, & Cordy Glenn). And out of those 6 tackle prospects there will likely be 2 who are designated as left tackles leaving 4 who will drop down to guard and/or be right tackles.