The Most Elusive
300lb Man In Modern Sports
By: S. Paul
Lukoskie
Ever
since Jonathan Ogden retired at the end of the 2007 season the Baltimore Ravens
have been desperately searching for a player that can hold down the left side
of the offensive line. Even though the coaching staff and front office can find
late round gems at almost every position on the defensive side of the ball, the
offensive tackle position still remains a glaring weak spot nearly 5 years and upwards
of 10 draft picks and free agent acquisitions. Why is it that the Ravens have
such a tough time finding an answer to protect the best quarterback this
franchise has ever had? Well, after a lot of research, I’ve come to the
conclusion that it’s not just the Ravens.
Free Agent Acquisitions:
The
fact is that premier left tackles in the NFL do not hit the open market. Teams
almost always lock these guys up well before they are at a restricted or
unrestricted free agency point. Consider the top LT’s over the last 5 years.
How many were actually permitted to hit the market while they were in their
prime? Even average LT’s such as Donald Penn with Tampa Bay were franchised and
then extended. Joe Thomas was even extended before he reached the end of his
rookie deal with Cleveland and the Browns are not a beacon for spending. In
your own opinion, if you were to consider your top left tackles in the NFL (for
me it would be Joe Thomas, Jake Long, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Ryan Clady, and Michael
Roos), how many times do those guys hit free agency before they are 31,32, or
33 years old? The answer is quite simply never because the rarity of finding a
great to even an average left tackle is next to impossible.
The NFL Draft:
I
turned my attention to the draft next and my discovery was right what I thought
it would be, but I was a little stunned to see the magnitude of it.
*For the purpose of my research I
produced a scale and assigned arbitrary numerical values to the different “levels”
of left tackles in the drafts dating back to 2008. I'm not going to include the 2011 draft class because it is too early to determine how any of these players will develop.
Scale:
5
- Good to Outstanding Starting LT in the NFL. [Think Joe Thomas & D’Brickashaw
Ferguson]
4 - Above Average Starting LT in the NFL. [Think Duane Brown & Joe Staley]
3 - Average Starting/Performed decently when given opportunity at LT. [Think Jordan Gross & Donald Penn]
2 - Below Average Starting LT in NFL/Limited time to develop before team moves on. [Think J’Marcus Webb & Michael Oher]
1 - Should not be a LT/Depth tackle with little chance to ever start/Cut/Out of NFL. [Think Tyler Polumbus & Levi Brown]
4 - Above Average Starting LT in the NFL. [Think Duane Brown & Joe Staley]
3 - Average Starting/Performed decently when given opportunity at LT. [Think Jordan Gross & Donald Penn]
2 - Below Average Starting LT in NFL/Limited time to develop before team moves on. [Think J’Marcus Webb & Michael Oher]
1 - Should not be a LT/Depth tackle with little chance to ever start/Cut/Out of NFL. [Think Tyler Polumbus & Levi Brown]
2010 NFL Draft:
Out of 23 total
offensive tackles drafted, only 9 were given positional designations of left
tackle (39%), only 5 started at least one full season (22%), of those 5
starting left tackles 2 were taken in the top 10 of the draft and have
outperformed their draft colleagues.
4th Overall – Trent Williams,
Washington Redskins. [Grade: 4. He’s a solid young tackle when he’s healthy.
Definitely could improve to a 5 as he enters his prime.]
6th Overall – Russell Okung,
Seattle Seahawks. [Grade: 4. Like Trent Williams, he’s a very talented young
left tackle entering his prime.]
2nd Round – Rodger Saffold,
St. Louis Rams. [Grade: 2. Has shown flashes of eventually becoming a 3 or 4,
but has been inconsistent. Probably better suited at right tackle or guard.]
3rd Round – Jared Veldheer,
Oakland Raiders. [Grade: 4. To find an above average starting left tackle in
the 3rd round is a massive anomaly. Oakland got very lucky.]
4th Round – Jason Fox,
Detroit Lions. [Grade: 1. He’s a 2nd string guy behind Jeff Backus
who is a below average starting left tackle.]
5th Round – Ed Wang,
Buffalo Bills. [Grade 1: Depth swing tackle on a team that has been desperate
for a good left tackle for years.]
6th Round – Marshall Newhouse.
[Grade 3: Outperformed two 1st round left tackle prospects in Bryan
Bulaga and Derrek Sherrod. Played well in place for injured Chad Clifton. In
line to start at LT for Green Bay in 2012. Anomaly.]
6th Round – Ramon Harewood,
Baltimore Ravens. [Grade: 1. Two major knee surgeries on both knees in
back-to-back seasons. He’ll be out of the NFL after this summer.]
7th Round – J’Marcus
Webb, Chicago Bears. [Grade: 2. Started at LT for Chicago in 2011, but was
really inconsistent. Team will likely move on before Webb reaches potential.]
So,
in the 2010 draft the “average grade” for left tackles after the 1st
round was a 2 and the major likelihood that only Jared Veldheer will be the
only quality starting left tackle chosen after the 1st round. If you
were to consider all left tackles taken after the top 15 you would still have
an average of 2 as there were no left tackles taken after Okung until Rodger
Saffold in the top of the 2nd round.
2009 NFL Draft:
In the 2009
draft we saw 21 offensive tackles chosen, including Alex Boone who was
undrafted. Of those 21 tackles 5 were given the positional designation of left
tackle for at least one full season (24%) and of those 5 there were 3 who were
named starting left tackles (14%). The interesting thing about the 2009 draft
is we started to see right tackles being valued extremely high as well, but
their initial selection was as a left tackle prospect.
8th Overall – Eugene Monroe,
Jacksonville Jaguars. [Grade: 3. He’s been a solid starter for the Jags for 3
seasons now. Will likely get extended in Jacksonville and has potential to get
up to a 4.]
23rd Overall – Michael Oher,
Baltimore Ravens. [Grade: 2. He has the athleticism to be an average left
tackle, but the technique just isn’t there and has shown better poise at right
tackle. Ravens will likely move on from him after his rookie contract is up in
2013.]
2nd Round – William Beatty,
New York Giants. [Grade: 2. Athletic and has prototypical size, but lacks
technique and durability. Probably better suited as a right tackle or guard.]
4th Round – Troy Kropog,
Tennessee Titans. [Grade: 1. 2nd string left tackle behind one of
the best in the NFL, Michael Roos.]
7th Round – Lydon Murtha,
Miami Dolphins. [Grade: 1. He was actually drafted by Detroit before being cut.
2nd string tackle behind one of the best young guys in the NFL, Jake
Long.]
So,
similar to the 2010 Draft, the “average grade” for left tackles taken after round
1 was a 2 and if you were to include everyone taken outside of the top 15 you’d
have an even lower “average grade” of 1.5.
2008 NFL Draft:
The 2008 draft
yielded some of the best left tackle prospects we’ve seen in years. Jake Long,
Ryan Clady, Brandon Albert, Sam Baker, and Duane Brown have all been average to
the best in the league entering their prime. Jake Long and Ryan Clady are two
of the most consistent and well rounded pure left tackles in the league and Duane
Brown went from a right tackle/guard projection to becoming one of the most
athletic and dominant run blockers in the NFL. That said, out of 25 offensive
tackles taken only 7 were given the position designation of left tackle (28%)
and 5 of those 7 were taken in the 1st round. Of those 5 taken in
the first round 3 were taken in the top 15 and other than Duane Brown in
Houston, only 2 can really be given an above average to great accolade.
1st Overall – Jake Long,
Miami Dolphins. [Grade: 5. He’s got the size, athleticism, and technique that
all great left tackles have. He’s one of the top 3 left tackles in the NFL and
he’s just entering his prime.]
12th Overall – Ryan Clady,
Denver Broncos. [Grade: 5. Was a day-1 starter at left tackle in Denver and is
widely considered one of the top 5 left tackles in the NFL.]
15th Overall – Brandon Albert,
Kansas City Chiefs. [Grade: 3. Never truly impressed as a left tackle, but has
always been solid. There are still some who feel if KC can get an upgrade at
left tackle that they’d actually move Brandon Albert to RT.]
21st Overall – Sam Baker,
Atlanta Falcons. [Grade: 3. He’s been up and down and was replaced at times
this past season by Will Svitek. Still, he’s better than a lot of other teams’
left tackles.]
26th Overall – Duane Brown,
Houston Texans. [Grade: 4. A lot of folks thought this was a major reach by
Houston (who traded back up for him). Duane Brown has developed into a very
athletic and nimble left tackle for someone who was projected as a right tackle
or guard.]
4th Round – Anthony Collins,
Cincinnati Bengals. [Grade: 1. Actually, Collins isn’t that bad of a player and
has done decently well when given the opportunity. However, he sat behind one
of the better LT’s in the NFL, Andrew Whitworth.]
7th Round – Demetrius Bell,
Buffalo Bills. [Grade: 2. Bell has been a below average starting left tackle
for Buffalo over the past couple of years. It took him a while to develop and
even after developing he’s still just not very good, which is why he’s an
unsigned free agent right now in his prime.]
This
draft featured a first round where a ton of tackles were taken and a majority
of them ended up moving to different positions after being prospective left
tackles (Gosder Cherilus, Chris Williams, and Jeff Otah). There were also
multiple offensive tackle prospects who ended up dropping to guard and becoming
pro-bowl caliber guards (Josh Sitton & Carl Nicks, for example). So, even
though there were really only 2 left tackles taken after the 1st round
the “average grade” was 1.5. After the top 15 the average jumps up a little bit
to 2.5 and the overall average of all the left tackles from the 2008 draft is 3.4,
which is pretty good.
As we can see from looking at these
3 draft classes, the left tackle position is extremely difficult to project and
develop and it’s almost impossible to find quality starting caliber left
tackles after the 1st round and arguably after the top 15. In 3
draft classes (2008, 2009, & 2010) there have only been 4 starting caliber
left tackles with a grade of 3 or higher (Brown, Baker, Veldheer, &
Newhouse) and only 2 (Brown & Veldheer) who are performing at an above
average level. Between those two, Veldheer was the only one taken after the 1st
round, which why I say he is such an anomaly.
When you think about the evolution
of the NFL offense and how it has become centered around the quarterback and
prolific passing attacks you can understand why the left tackle is arguably the
most important position on the field and why so many teams are desperately
searching for an answer at the left tackle position and why teams clamor over
signing even the most average left tackle in the league. Some teams are even so
desperate that they’ll give a long term deal to a below average left tackle (as
evidenced by Arizona re-signing Levi Brown) in the hopes that they can develop
into something more.
At the end of the day, if you want a
shot at a top left tackle you have to be picking in the top 15 of a draft. So,
in this upcoming 2012 draft look for at least 3 left tackle prospects to be
taken in the top 15 (Matt Kalil, Jon Martin, & Riley Reiff) and I wouldn’t
be surprised to see upwards of 5 tackles taken in the 1st round
(Mike Adams, Kelichi Osemele, & Cordy Glenn). And out of those 6 tackle
prospects there will likely be 2 who are designated as left tackles leaving 4
who will drop down to guard and/or be right tackles.
No comments:
Post a Comment